Summer 2023 Transfer Window

[Monkman]

I'm going to politely disagree with that logic without backing it up, if that's ok.

 

[Omar Devone Little]

A goalkeeper is urgent, and left back slightly less so but is still a high priority.

Get those in and I'll be relaxed for the rest of the window while we try and bring quality like Sangare while trimming the rest of the squad down.

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If we signed Henderson and a good left back I would feel much more relaxed about it as I know we've got the tools to at least compete then. That is an absolute minimum though before Arsenal as we're currently weaker than we were last season.

Obviously though if we're going into the season with basically the same squad then we should expect basically the same outcomes i.e. dismal away form, lower-league ball retention, few chances created from open play and a massive reliance on Johnson and Gibbs-White.

Without 3/4 quality signings around the pitch we'll struggle again. I think the bottom of the league is weaker this season but I think we'll at least have relegation concerns if it's not sorted.

 

[Robertson]

Its the opposite actually.

Lets say the probability of us signing a player on any given day is 50%.

The probability of us signing a player tomorrow is 50%. The probability of us signing a player on Friday is 50% multiplied by 50% which is 25%.

The probability of us signing a player on Sat is 50% times 50% times 50%, which is 12.5%. It keeps getting lower from there on.

The longer we go without signing a player the lower the probability is that we will sign one.

I knew maths would come in useful one day.

I’m not sure that’s how it works because the days aren’t independent events

Probably more like a Poisson process I think, like waiting for a bus (give it a google if you’re interested).

Basically assuming a signing (or a bus) is going to arrive at some point, the longer you wait, the more likely it becomes.

 

[Marco Pascolo]

I wonder what Mr Marinakis is thinking about this transfer window? We know we want quality over quantity this summer but surely he got to be getting pissed off with how slow we are being and not getting deals done

 

[Bonfy177]

Its the opposite actually.

Lets say the probability of us signing a player on any given day is 50%.

The probability of us signing a player tomorrow is 50%. The probability of us signing a player on Friday is 50% multiplied by 50% which is 25%.

The probability of us signing a player on Sat is 50% times 50% times 50%, which is 12.5%. It keeps getting lower from there on.

The longer we go without signing a player the lower the probability is that we will sign one.

I knew maths would come in useful one day.

 

[Player-12]

Its the opposite actually.

Lets say the probability of us signing a player on any given day is 50%.

The probability of us signing a player tomorrow is 50%. The probability of us signing a player on Friday is 50% multiplied by 50% which is 25%.

The probability of us signing a player on Sat is 50% times 50% times 50%, which is 12.5%. It keeps getting lower from there on.

The longer we go without signing a player the lower the probability is that we will sign one.

I knew maths would come in useful one day.

Only if each day is independent. Like if we all sit together grab a new list of players and try to buy one at random that day, then throw the list away and start again the next.

But we don't do that. We tend towards an outcome. The efforts of one day roll over and impact the probability of a signing on the next. If we come to an agreement on personal terms with a player on Thursday. Our probability on Friday is much higher.

We don't throw that contract away and start again Friday.

 

[Bobby The Brain]

I’m not sure that’s how it works because the days aren’t independent events

Probably more like a Poisson process I think, like waiting for a bus (give it a google if you’re interested).

Basically assuming a signing (or a bus) is going to arrive at some point, the longer you wait, the more likely it becomes.

Yep, think of it like this, if the signing is inevitable before the end of the window the probability of a signing on the last day is 100% until we sign someone.

Therefore the longer we go without a signing the higher the probability each day.

 

[DapperDan]

We are all well bored, aren't we?

 

[Czar Chasm]

Yep, think of it like this, if the signing is inevitable before the end of the window the probability of a signing on the last day is 100% until we sign someone.

Therefore the longer we go without a signing the higher the probability each day.

Or viewed another way if it isn't inevitable that we sign someone and there is a possibility, no matter how small, that we dont sign anyone then each day that passes makes that possibility more likely.

So, if we accept that it isn't 100% certain that we will sign someone, the odds that we won't increases the longer we dont sign anyone.

The longer we go without a signing the less likely it is that there will be one.

 

[adam09]

We are all well bored, aren't we?

I think it's a well quiet transfer window all over the country compared to the normal madness. So far.

 

[It's Baggio]

Got a bit of a slating at Ajax. No idea if that’s was justified or not.

He's not great in possession which is an issue at Ajax when their CB's have to be playmakers like Martinez/Timber.

Think he'd do well here at LB in a back 4.

 

[Master Yates]

f***ing hell lads. We all complain about Brentford fans on the forum then we lure them in with all this maths chat….


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[Samba's Water Bottle]

I wonder what Mr Marinakis is thinking about this transfer window? We know we want quality over quantity this summer but surely he got to be getting pissed off with how slow we are being and not getting deals done

I can't imagine he'll be best pleased when he sees the Mykonos beach bar bill from his son's failed attempts to tap up Willian and his family.

 

[Mcbeth99]

I wonder what Mr Marinakis is thinking about this transfer window? We know we want quality over quantity this summer but surely he got to be getting pissed off with how slow we are being and not getting deals done

It's the problem we have now that we want better players. They will always first look to see if most of the other PL (and big teams abroad) want them first before accepting us. So we need to wait until certain slots at bigger clubs are filled in order for that level of signings to become available for us.

If we were to go for medium standard signings we would have a lot more chance as big teams wouldn't want them and we would be desirable. However I think we are now trying to go for quality which with our table position last year means requiring patience. I just wish I knew where I could buy some patience...

 

[vertigored]

You would assume marinakis is a bit more in the loop of what’s actually going on though, rather than like us feeding off what any random tool with a phone decides to pop on twitter?

 

[RedRobbo]

My (im)patience is starting to wear very thin

 

[Est.1865]

You would assume marinakis is a bit more in the loop of what’s actually going on though, rather than like us feeding off what any random tool with a phone decides to pop on twitter?

Well a couple of weeks back I convinced myself that we were after a couple of major signings, and that we are trying to get those done before filling out the remaining needs.

But that feels like a long time ago, hard to believe this can drag on much longer...

 

[vertigored]

Well a couple of weeks back I convinced myself that we were after a couple of major signings, and that we are trying to get those done before filling out the remaining needs.

But that feels like a long time ago, hard to believe this can drag on much longer...

Yep, theres only one transfer at the moment that I think we can be sure we are in for and that’s Hendo, none of the others have been based on anything other than the twitterati embellishing previous tweets from people that dont know anything and we are drinking them up like gospel.
we are obviously going to be in for more than just hendo but who our actual targets are and how far down the line we are to getting any of them is only really known by our new Scottish transfer guru.

 

[Alf-engelos Mindminackers]

f***ing hell lads. We all complain about Brentford fans on the forum then we lure them in with all this maths chat….


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[congo_red_49]

Last summer - we're going a bit over the top with signings aren't we? 200 new players and £500 squillion , FFP, panic signings, going for quantity over quality...blah blah...
This summer - oh woe, why haven't we signed anyone.

Bottom line - never a happy medium with this club. In fact, pretty much every summer since the invention of the internet it's been one of the two above options.

 

[Far have we travelled]

This was someone I though Ross might consider. Shirley it must have crossed his mind.

Fulham make Bassey bid​

Fulham have made £15m bid for Ajax defenderCalvin Bassey.

The Cottagers are awaiting a response from the Eredivisie side, where he has four years remaining on his contract.

Ajax signed Bassey from Rangers last July for an initial fee of £19.6m (£22.7m including add-ons).

Rangers would also receive a 10-per-cent sell-on fee should Bassey move – that clause was inserted into the deal with Ajax last summer.

Something in the way he moves, perhaps.

 

[Bobby The Brain]

Or viewed another way if it isn't inevitable that we sign someone and there is a possibility, no matter how small, that we dont sign anyone then each day that passes makes that possibility more likely.

So, if we accept that it isn't 100% certain that we will sign someone, the odds that we won't increases the longer we dont sign anyone.

The longer we go without a signing the less likely it is that there will be one.

True but unless we know the probability of a signing, we can’t do the maffs.

 

[Dino]

Something in the way he moves, perhaps.

Shirley, you can't be serious.

 

[DanR]

Shirley, you can't be serious.

I am serious, and don't call me Shirley.

 

[HBB]

This was someone I though Ross might consider. Shirley it must have crossed his mind.

Fulham make Bassey bid​

Fulham have made £15m bid for Ajax defenderCalvin Bassey.

The Cottagers are awaiting a response from the Eredivisie side, where he has four years remaining on his contract.

Ajax signed Bassey from Rangers last July for an initial fee of £19.6m (£22.7m including add-ons).

Rangers would also receive a 10-per-cent sell-on fee should Bassey move – that clause was inserted into the deal with Ajax last summer.

I want to buy him but pay you in precious metals.... so how about 1 giant gold finger ....