Summer 24 Transfer Window

[MaxiRobriguez]

If we go down Murillo, MGW, Taiwo and Elanga will definitely be off.

Good chance that Dominguez, Danilo and Niakhate leave too I reckon.

The out of contract players (Boly, Aina, Wood, Kouyate) will all leave.

Most of the money from those sales will be used to plug FFP gaps and service the wage bill of what remains (given that we'd have a substantial drop in income if we were in the Championship next season).

It'd be a very different Forest side next year, and no doubt another chaotic summer of ins and (mostly) outs.

No one buying Danilo or Niakhate from us. They'd have no choice but to stay.

Boly won't have any other suitors so may choose to extend.

I'm confident our defensive unit wouldn't need any major additions whatsoever if we went down.

Attacking unit is where the changes may need to happen.

 

[Haych]

We won’t go down but if we do we will keep more of the squad together than people think, every relegated team does now days.

MGW could get us promoted on his own.

 

[Ashley]

You seem to think that somehow we will simultaneously sell/release all of our players yet retain a massive wage bill and be in FFP trouble. This can’t possibly be the case. It will be a balance between the two extremes.

We'll still have plenty of players the books, even with those departures. Still plenty of bomb-squadders who only left on loan and will be coming back, in addition to the others left at the club.

 

[Ashley]

No one buying Danilo or Niakhate from us. They'd have no choice but to stay.

Boly won't have any other suitors so may choose to extend.

I'm confident our defensive unit wouldn't need any major additions whatsoever if we went down.

Attacking unit is where the changes may need to happen.

Niakhate will no doubt have suitors in Europe, and someone may take a punt on Danilo as he's still young and has a high ceiling. They might stay, but I don't think it's particularly likely.

Any out of contract players like Boly would most likely have to take a wage cut if they wanted to stay, which feels unlikely.

 

[Collymore!]

So if we’ve breached FFP in 22/23, there’s a good chance we’re close to the limit for 23/24.

Our allowed losses for 24/25 if relegated would be a 2x Premier League £35m + Championship £13m. So no immediate changes whether we survive or are relegated, however we would hopefully be instantly focused on our 24/25 FFP (or P&S) position, and how that performance will be analysed in 25/26.

There’s an instant £100m hole in our income from losing Premier League TV money, taking into account the £30m parachute payment. Our outgoings will continue to rise potentially with contactual commitments (i.e. if we owed more money for a player like Sangare based on appearances).

The first season back in the championship will be whether we gamble that £100m shortfall. If we take that £100m “on the chin” and keep the squad together, then we’d need to be promoted at the first attempt. If we didn’t then this seasons FFP troubles will look inconsequential compared to what ‘26 would look like.

We also wouldn’t be able to spend £1 without selling, and we need to understand that we still owe a decent amount of money on most of the players we’ve purchased like MGW, Sangare, Danilo etc.

What will probably happen is that we’ll look to cover around £100m of the relegation miss with sales (and that needs to be profit). Selling MGW for around £40m would only see around £15m profit, selling Sangare for £30m would see £0 - and we can start to see the difficulty in clearing that £100m, hence why we’re wanting to sell Murillo for £60m+ as that would see us raise £50m profit.

However we’re rumoured to have no relegation clauses, and would maybe want to buy two or three (hundred) players to freshen up the squad - so we may want to raise around £120m+ in reality.

We’d be risking the clubs future to not sell our most potentially “profitable” players. I’d say Murillo, MGW, Awoniyi, Worrall & CHO would be the base of a sell off.

We’re going to struggle to sell Sangare, Dominguez, Danilo, Vlach, Turner without taking a loss - but they’re also not going to want to be in the Championship and could cause squad issues.

And we’ll need to buy players to replace the ones we sell. It will be interesting to watch as a neutral, maybe not as enjoyable for us.

Or we keep the squad together and get promoted first time, then we’re back where we are now.

 

[Robertson]

We'll still have plenty of players the books, even with those departures. Still plenty of bomb-squadders who only left on loan and will be coming back, in addition to the others left at the club.

If we sold and released all the players you listed we’d have 17 players left, give or take, and that’s including the likes of Richards, Panzo etc, and the three goalkeepers, of which we’d get likely rid of two anyway, by hook or by crook. So more like 15.

 

[Ashley]

If we sold and released all the players you listed we’d have 17 players left, give or take, and that’s including the likes of Richards, Panzo etc, and the three goalkeepers, of which we’d get likely rid of two anyway, by hook or by crook. So more like 15.

That's still nearly 20 players on mostly Premier League wages though. That wage bill still needs to be paid somehow.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

So if we’ve breached FFP in 22/23, there’s a good chance we’re close to the limit for 23/24.

Our allowed losses for 24/25 if relegated would be a 2x Premier League £35m + Championship £13m. So no immediate changes whether we survive or are relegated, however we would hopefully be instantly focused on our 24/25 FFP (or P&S) position, and how that performance will be analysed in 25/26.

There’s an instant £100m hole in our income from losing Premier League TV money, taking into account the £30m parachute payment. Our outgoings will continue to rise potentially with contactual commitments (i.e. if we owed more money for a player like Sangare based on appearances).

It's more like an £80m hole, not £100m. c£120m revenues of PL football less the forecast £40m parachute payments.

If we assume we just breached FFP last year that assumes a loss of about £30m last year - so a cost base of c.£150m on revs of £120m. That cost base will be a mix of c.£80m (wages), £30m (promotion bonus), £40m (amortised transfers).

This current accounting period we'll still have the £80m wages and £40m of amortised transfers from last year but no promo bonuses - maybe some avoiding relegation bonuses for new players signed but hard to forecast this, so let's leave at £0 for now. That's a net £0 with revenues in. Johnson sale at £47m will largely offset all the amortised transfers in this year.

So next year if we're in the Championship we are basically aiming for a £0 net at end of the season to keep us in FFP over rolling 3 year period. We'll still have the £40m amortised transfers+probably another £20m amortised from transfers last year. The £80m wage bill will fall significantly given squad reduction and relegation wage decrease clauses in contracts. Maybe the base is £50m-£60m rather than £80m. £40m of parachute payments means the gap to bridge to net £0 is £70m odd.

That probably means Murillo+ one or two more. But it doesn't need to be anymore aggressive than that, at least not in our first season back in the Championship anyway. It's the season after if we don't go up again which would likely see a large number of players leaving as we couldn't rely on a single major transfer, it'd need to be a number of smaller transfers to make up a similar figure needed as previous season.

Caveat: all fag paper maths until we see the accounts for last year. Should be released next few weeks.

 

[Robertson]

That's still nearly 20 players on mostly Premier League wages though. That wage bill still needs to be paid somehow.

I don't really agree 15 is nearly 20, sorry.

The players would be (if we sold the ones you suggested, which I'm not saying we won't by the way) :

Sels
Toffolo
Niakhate - sold
Yates
Awoniyi - sold
Sangare
Dominguez -sold
CHO
MGW - sold
Danilo - sold
Williams
Murillo - sold
Omobamidele
Elanga - sold
Turner - deported
Vlach - expelled from our dimension
Aguilera

plus:

Hwang
Worrall
Dennis
Richards
O'Brien
Bowler
Panzo

Presumably selling Niakhate, Awoniyi, Dominguez, MGW, Danilo, Murillo and Elanga would raise a few bob, otherwise why would we do it?
Then who are the mega-bucks wages players left? Sangare and CHO I suppose, fair enough. I think we'd have some room to manoeuvre financially if all this comes to pass though.

 

[Project Zeus]

We won’t go down but if we do we will keep more of the squad together than people think, every relegated team does now days.

MGW could get us promoted on his own.

We're going to struggle to hold on to MGW in the PL, let alone the Championship.

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[Major Oak Morgan]

Right, as we are staying up and clearly have a few hundred million to play with, who should the scattergun be targeting?

I know we should be prudent, but I’m rattling for the new signing buzz.

For me it’s release all the loans in and get:

LB
Midfield General (unless sangare does a 180)
Wide man
Morgan back up (youngster if poss)
Taiwo competition

 

[Est.1865]

So we’ve basically got all of the Johnson and Mangala income to

Right, as we are staying up and clearly have a few hundred million to play with, who should the scattergun be targeting?

I know we should be prudent, but I’m rattling for the new signing buzz.

For me it’s release all the loans in and get:

LB
Midfield General (unless sangare does a 180)
Wide man
Morgan back up (youngster if poss)
Taiwo competition

Taiwo replacement

 

[Steve B]

2 top strikers. 1LB 1RB.
Midfield dynamo.
and a big imposing CD Felipe/Boly upgrade.
Should do it.

 

[Erik]

We should be able to cut back a little in the summer if we stay up, so I only expect 15-20 new signings.

 

[Listen 'ere young man]

Limit it to 1 GK, 1 CF and 1 Set piece coach.

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[Rubics]

Depends if we sell Murillo.
if we do a new CB is required
Starting CF and wood for another year
couple of decent creative loans - not kids that we don’t use!

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

Feels like we'll need a big sale and I expect Murillo might be that player. £50m+?

Then we'll need to do a lot of wage bill trimming: Vlach, Hennessey, Kouyate, Felipe, McKenna, Worrall, Arter (yes he's still here!) all to go and don't retain the loans of Montiel, Tavares, Reyna or Ribeiro. Shifting that lot off the books must save about £20m off the wage bill a year and doing so would improve our FFP position by £70m in total.

Leaves a squad of:

GK: Sels, Turner
RB: Williams, Aina
RCB: Boly, Omobamidele
LCB: Niakhate, ??
LB: ??, Toffolo
RCM: Yates, Sangare
LCM: Dominguez, Danilo
RW: Elanga, ??
AM: MGW, Aguilera
LW: CHO, ??
ST: Awoniyi, Wood.

So not a lot of fixing to do there. Clear need for a first choice left back and another couple options out wide. Maybe a first choice striker if Awoniyi can't get his fitness up.

 

[Master Yates]

So first off I’d spend around fifteen million on a few players for Olympiakos that they won’t want come January.

We’re pretty well stocked at right back, so we’ll need a couple more there.

Goalkeeper is full of quantity not quality, so another ten million pound clown to come in. Can’t afford to let the others go, so we’ll need to keep them on the wage bill.

That should leave us with about 5m to spend, so I’d drop 35m on the slowest player from the Eredivisie I can find and bring in my best player from my FM14 save on loan.

Then loan out a load, forget about the loan rules and release them instead, but don’t tell anyone that’s what we’ve done until about 4 months later.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.


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[Listen 'ere young man]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769287635527143556

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[Rockabilly]

Getting a goal scorer that isn't a bloody biscuit would be nice.

 

[thereds66]

If we stay up, I would probably still sell Murillo, as fantastic as he is, Forest have a great opportunity with him to make a huge profit, given the teams that are linked with him (upwards of £90 million). This would help us develop the rest of the team, and keep hold of other assets.

 

[redtreeant]

If maquire went for 70m then murillo must be worth well over 100m

 

[eesti_red]

We ain’t getting £100m or anywhere near that level this summer in my book. In another year if we stay up then possibly, if he continues to improve, but for me £50-60m is a more realistic expectation of what I envisage we could get for him this summer. The one glaring weakness in his game right now in terms of aerial duels is I think significant enough to stop anyone paying anywhere near £100m currently.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

We won't ever get £100m for Murillo. That would smash the world transfer record for a defender by £20m (and 25%) in records whereby the selling club had significant power in the negotiations. Forest would have very little negotiating power if a bid came in north of £50m. We'd do well to get that figure to start with a 6.

 

[eesti_red]

We won't ever get £100m for Murillo. That would smash the world transfer record for a defender by £20m (and 25%) in records whereby the selling club had significant power in the negotiations. Forest would have very little negotiating power if a bid came in north of £50m. We'd do well to get that figure to start with a 6.

Well yes given it seems that we probably need to make another sale I think you’re right - £50m+ and I imagine he would very likely be gone this summer. I suspect that’s already the plan and that young English left sided centre half Olympiacos randomly signed from Reading is lined up as a replacement.