Summer 24 Transfer Window

[Matt]

If we stay up, I think things start to get interesting in terms of cycling the squad. Lot of players with high ceilings hitting their second and third premier league season should see our quality improve and mature organically without having to make wholesale changes to the playing staff.

A championship window will be around begging the likes of MGW, Elanga etc to stick with us for one season longer rather than pulling in new blood.

 

[Rubics]

Think it’s another one of those key moments for the club - stay up with Nuno and we can really push on. The club will also have to make a decision on the new stand - can’t carry on with the current situation. Go down and it’s a long way back.

 

[eyupmeduck]

I'm hopeful that we can stay up and I'm really hoping that we won't be looking for a new first choice keeper in the summer.

Think if we can stay up then it will be a case of an early big sale and later activity around purchases due to the odd PSR calendar timings.

If we go down then it will possibly still be the first part (Sales) but less on the purchases for big fees anyway.




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[Any Time Now]

Having to sell MGW from the Championship would be the biggest kick in the bollocks, could be the difference between 30-35m and 70m+

 

[Listen 'ere young man]

Having to sell MGW from the Championship would be the biggest kick in the bollocks, could be the difference between 30-35m and 70m+

If that was the case, for 30m or so I'd keep him for a year, that's hardly any profit, I'm sure he'd give 1 year in the championship.

 

[youreds1986]

I

If that was the case, for 30m or so I'd keep him for a year, that's hardly any profit, I'm sure he'd give 1 year in the championship.

I don't think there's a chance he would drop down to the Champ. He will be 25 next season and should be entering his prime years, won't want to waste that in the Championship.

Wouldn't surprise me if he has a relegation release clause, either.

 

[youreds1986]

As for this summer, if we stay up I expect one big sale and I reckon it will be Murillo. If he keeps up this form there will be big clubs all over Europe competing for him as he is already fantastic and genuinely has the ceiling to be one of the best players in world football.

I can see bids of 50m plus coming in and us accepting to fund strengthening elsewhere. Especially as Andy is showing himself to be more than good enough at this level.

 

[Listen 'ere young man]

I

I don't think there's a chance he would drop down to the Champ. He will be 25 next season and should be entering his prime years, won't want to waste that in the Championship.

Wouldn't surprise me if he has a relegation release clause, either.

For 30m he won't have a choice and any relegation clause if present, is likely to be significantly higher than that.

 

[Red Dog in a Dinghy]

As for this summer, if we stay up I expect one big sale and I reckon it will be Murillo. If he keeps up this form there will be big clubs all over Europe competing for him as he is already fantastic and genuinely has the ceiling to be one of the best players in world football.

I can see bids of 50m plus coming in and us accepting to fund strengthening elsewhere. Especially as Andy is showing himself to be more than good enough at this level.

If Fofana moves for 70m after one season in the league, then we should be looking at the same for Murillo. No point selling him now.

I think we’ll stay up and have a huge pot of money to spend. Even more so if the Johnson sale is included in 23/24.

90m - 23/24 season from sales.
140m - next season’s money.
20m - 24/25 sales (Vlach, Turner, Worrall, O’Brien and Dennis)

Total - 250m.

Our core squad will be down to 20:

No Amortisation (5) - Aina, Toffolo, Boly, Yates and Wood.
2.5m a year (8) - Sels, Montiel*, Murillo, Omobamidele, Tavares*, Dominguez, CHO and Ribeiro
4m a year (5) - Williams, Niakhate, Danilo, Elanga and Awoniyi
5m a year (2) - MGW and Sangare.

Amortisation - 50m

Wages - 50m (20 players on an average 50k a week).

That’s a huge surplus for:

1st choice - G,LB, WGR
2nd choice - CB, DM, AM, WGR
3rd choice - G

Decisions on: Montiel, Tavares, CHO and Wood.

We could spend 150m in 24/25 (5 year contracts) and have 30m a year amortised. 20m on the (new signings) wages and we’d break even (without even including the sales).

The TV money goes up in 25/26 also. Stay up in 23/24 and the 24/25 summer window will likely be a cracker.

Just no more pissing around with shitty loans and average players. Oh…and we need to stay up of course!

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

If Fofana moves for 70m after one season in the league, then we should be looking at the same for Murillo. No point selling him now.

I think we’ll stay up and have a huge pot of money to spend. Even more so if the Johnson sale is included in 23/24.

90m - 23/24 season from sales.
140m - next season’s money.
20m - 24/25 sales (Vlach, Turner, Worrall, O’Brien and Dennis)

Total - 250m.

Our core squad will be down to 20:

No Amortisation (5) - Aina, Toffolo, Boly, Yates and Wood.
2.5m a year (8) - Sels, Montiel*, Murillo, Omobamidele, Tavares*, Dominguez, CHO and Ribeiro
4m a year (5) - Williams, Niakhate, Danilo, Elanga and Awoniyi
5m a year (2) - MGW and Sangare.

Amortisation - 50m

Wages - 50m (20 players on an average 50k a week).

That’s a huge surplus for:

1st choice - G,LB, WGR
2nd choice - CB, DM, AM, WGR
3rd choice - G

Decisions on: Montiel, Tavares, CHO and Wood.

We could spend 150m in 24/25 (5 year contracts) and have 30m a year amortised. 20m on the (new signings) wages and we’d break even (without even including the sales).

The TV money goes up in 25/26 also. Stay up in 23/24 and the 24/25 summer window will likely be a cracker.

Just no more pissing around with shitty loans and average players. Oh…and we need to stay up of course!

You've included two years of player sales but only one year of transfers in/wages.

Your wage bill is (for now at least) probably £30m short of where it should be, if not more still. I don't think it's realistic to assume our wage bill after transfers out would be £50m given we were at £30m in the Championship.

Sangare amortisation got to be more than £5m doesn't it? He didn't sign a 7 year contract.

Don't think there's anywhere near the amount of money for a splurge as you anticipate. You've got £150m net to spend but that's prior to uplifting wages and is a figure of which 2/3rds is derived from player sales rather than BAU revenue, so there will have to be some caution on not going too hard on the spending given liabilities will persist into following years where for whatever reason we may not have big sale potential.

So in that basis maybe we'll have a net spend of £50m, but that might involve a Murillo transfer out if the money is right too.

 

[Red Dog in a Dinghy]

I

You've included two years of player sales but only one year of transfers in/wages.

Your wage bill is (for now at least) probably £30m short of where it should be, if not more still. I don't think it's realistic to assume our wage bill after transfers out would be £50m given we were at £30m in the Championship.

Sangare amortisation got to be more than £5m doesn't it? He didn't sign a 7 year contract.

Don't think there's anywhere near the amount of money for a splurge as you anticipate. You've got £150m net to spend but that's prior to uplifting wages and is a figure of which 2/3rds is derived from player sales rather than BAU revenue, so there will have to be some caution on not going too hard on the spending given liabilities will persist into following years where for whatever reason we may not have big sale potential.

So in that basis maybe we'll have a net spend of £50m, but that might involve a Murillo transfer out if the money is right too.

I assumed that the 23/24 earnings paid for the 23/24 amortisation / wages. That’s why it wasn’t mentioned. Amortisation 70m / Wages 60m (especially as we loaned so many out).

In the Championship we had over 30 players. 30 x 20k a week = 30m.

Next year 20 players at 50k a week = 50m. E.g. Sels, Boly, Ribeiro, Murillo, Omobamidele etc won’t be on that. Others will be on more.

Sangare was 35m € including add-ons. So £25m is about right.

Imo we’ll be way closer to 150m than the 50m you mentioned.

 

[eesti_red]

If Fofana moves for 70m after one season in the league, then we should be looking at the same for Murillo. No point selling him now.

I think we’ll stay up and have a huge pot of money to spend. Even more so if the Johnson sale is included in 23/24.

90m - 23/24 season from sales.
140m - next season’s money.
20m - 24/25 sales (Vlach, Turner, Worrall, O’Brien and Dennis)

Total - 250m.

Our core squad will be down to 20:

No Amortisation (5) - Aina, Toffolo, Boly, Yates and Wood.
2.5m a year (8) - Sels, Montiel*, Murillo, Omobamidele, Tavares*, Dominguez, CHO and Ribeiro
4m a year (5) - Williams, Niakhate, Danilo, Elanga and Awoniyi
5m a year (2) - MGW and Sangare.

Amortisation - 50m

Wages - 50m (20 players on an average 50k a week).

That’s a huge surplus for:

1st choice - G,LB, WGR
2nd choice - CB, DM, AM, WGR
3rd choice - G

Decisions on: Montiel, Tavares, CHO and Wood.

We could spend 150m in 24/25 (5 year contracts) and have 30m a year amortised. 20m on the (new signings) wages and we’d break even (without even including the sales).

The TV money goes up in 25/26 also. Stay up in 23/24 and the 24/25 summer window will likely be a cracker.

Just no more pissing around with shitty loans and average players. Oh…and we need to stay up of course!

Even if we manage to get £20m combined in fees for Vlach, Turner, Worrall, O'Brien, and Dennis, which might just about be feasible, that doesn't equate to £20m in profit. Taking into account the amortised fees still outstanding for those players (apart from Worrall), we'd at best be breaking even there. Plus the likes of Hwang, Laryea, Richards, Panzo are also all currently still under contract for next year too. I don't suggest any of them are likely to be involved, but again we'd be doing well to get rid of them without making a loss.

You also complete neglect the non-player costs the club incur like agent fees, non playing staff wages etc.

I do think we'll have more wriggle room than this season, but if you're expecting anything like £150m net spend you're going to be disappointed.

 

[Project Zeus]

Assuming we stay up and don't get some sort of transfer embargo put on us, we should have a fair bit of money to spend in this window without needing to sell anyone. The Johnson and Mangala sales will be in the books, and we'd have a 2/3 years of PL losses allowed rather than 1/3.

I'm not really sure where we'd be looking at spending that money, mind you. Up top and on the wings is probably the biggest priority, especially if Wood leaves at the end of his contract.

 

[atrophy]

If we manage to stay up we'll be in the strongest position we've been in for a while imo. We don't need wholesale changes, plenty of out's and some key additions (assuming Sels is good, switch Aina to RB, need a new starting LB, couple of backup/alternative winger options and a striker assuming Wood isn't renewed and Ribeiro is decent and kept as a 3rd option).

I think that makes us a decent proposition and strengthen other areas depending on sales or a bargain pops up.

 

[Frank Clark’s Tash]

Think it’s another one of those key moments for the club - stay up with Nuno and we can really push on. The club will also have to make a decision on the new stand - can’t carry on with the current situation. Go down and it’s a long way back.

Replace 'Nuno' for 'Coops' and this could have been written at the same point last season word for word.

 

[Morpeth]

If in the summer we stay up and our strikers are Awoniyi and Ribeiro, would I be shot for saying we go for someone who’s a better version of Taiwo? I really like him but can’t get this nagging doubt out of my mind that if he could finish better he’d score quite a few more. It’s the power v finesse debate really because he brings a lot of the former to the table very well.

 

[Project Zeus]

If in the summer we stay up and our strikers are Awoniyi and Ribeiro, would I be shot for saying we go for someone who’s a better version of Taiwo? I really like him but can’t get this nagging doubt out of my mind that if he could finish better he’d score quite a few more. It’s the power v finesse debate really because he brings a lot of the former to the table very well.

A player with Awonoyi's physical attributes with better finishing would cost £100m.

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[Morpeth]

A player with Awonoyi's physical attributes with better finishing would cost £100m.

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Some will but most won’t. Anyway, my point was that should we be looking at someone who is better than Awoniyi? I’m sort of thinking we should.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

Template for next season if we stay up:

GK: XX, Sels
RB: Aina, Williams
RCB: XX, Omobamidele
LCB: Murillo, Niakhate
LB: XX, Toffolo
RCM: Yates, Sangare
LCM: Danilo, Dominguez
RW: Elanga, XX
AM: MGW, Aguilera
LW: XX, CHO
ST: Awoniyi, XX, Wood

Six players in of which four should be starting players, two backups.

Turner, Hennessey, Vlach, Montiel, Tavares, Boly, Felipe, Kouyate, Origi all all the senior loaned out players can go.

We might need to sell Murillo in order to afford the real quality we'd want in those six players, in which case Boly or Felipe (fitness depending) would be retained for another year.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

Some will but most won’t. Anyway, my point was that should we be looking at someone who is better than Awoniyi? I’m sort of thinking we should.

Not for me.

His record when he's fit is unbelievable. Basically scores every other game in a side who've very often been a bit rubbish.

Wouldn't trade a fit Awoniyi for any other striker in the league apart from Haaland.

 

[Strummer]

Template for next season if we stay up:

That’s a big „if“.

So big, in fact, Sir Edmund Hillary and Sherpa Tenzing Norgay have just turned up, fancying a crack at it.

 

[Project Zeus]

Some will but most won’t. Anyway, my point was that should we be looking at someone who is better than Awoniyi? I’m sort of thinking we should.

I genuinely don't think there are many out there.

If the surgery he had recently was successful and he goes a season without any lengthy injuries with the form he's shown since he joined us, our transfer record for the Johnson sale will be smashed.

A deputy for Taiwo with 75% of his ability will do me just fine.

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[youreds1986]

Not for me.

His record when he's fit is unbelievable. Basically scores every other game in a side who've very often been a bit rubbish.

Wouldn't trade a fit Awoniyi for any other striker in the league apart from Haaland.

Yep.

He's been outstanding when fit. The big question mark is can he stay fit

 

[youreds1986]

I genuinely don't think there are many out there.

If the surgery he had recently was successful and he goes a season without any lengthy injuries with the form he's shown since he joined us, our transfer record for the Johnson sale will be smashed.

A deputy for Taiwo with 75% of his ability will do me just fine.

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Agreed. Personally as long as we have confidence in Taiwos fitness I'd give Wood another year or two (he's been outstanding under Nuno and he's a real leader).

Then we either keep Riberio as third option if he does well, or we bring in another younger player who can play through the middle and out wide as an option.

 

[Alf-engelos Mindminackers]

Regardless of what division we are in, the priority list should be:

1) Two crap keepers
2) Overpriced Mendes player
3) Ego-boosting designer-name signing, who might not be good at football but is huge on Instagram
4) Aging players with little/no resale value
5) Random agent punts, preferably all at the last minute

On past windows, I'm confidant we can achieve this.