Summer 2021 transfer window

[cheapseats]

Sure there is.

Knockaert cost Fulham £10m a mere 12 months ago and he signed a 4 year deal right?

That's £2.5m amortised.

There's no benefit to Fulham for loaning him for free considering he'd have had suitors elsewhere who would pay for him, either loan or permanent.

How much is harder to gauge but even a 50/50 split leaves Forest servicing a £1.25m loan fee plus whatever wages we're paying him which will be somewhere between £1m and £2m.

The idea that the loan is free is bollocks. We'll have ended up paying at least £2m all in in a best case scenario for Knockaert.

The only fly in the ointment of this argument is the “suitors elsewhere” bit. I would argue Fulham over paid for him big time (let’s face it we’re world experts on that) and the one thing you can say about making that sort of booboo is that other clubs aren’t going to put their hand in their pocket and help you out. So what you might like to get back and what is on offer are 2 different things. Into that throw what the payer wants, how much football they need etc etc and I don’t think you can reach the conclusion on cost that you have...

 

[Timothy Pope]

I think we should replace the whole team with the exception of Samba and Worrall.

We might have to sell those 2 to finance it though.


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[Haych]

Why would we be in this scenario?

If we want Premier League football then both of them should be here next season. It really is as simple as that.

Sorry, the best Forest can offer is 4 players from Greece and a Portuguese loan (he looks class on YouTube though).

 

[cheapseats]

fulham paid 10m for knockaert , they'll want the same fee. Thanks but no thanks, we shouldn't be paying that amount for a single player.

Especially one like Knockers who’s a totally unbalanced footballer. Dribbling and close control-10/10 everything else much much less...
Im prepared to have a little bet that Fulham try to tough it out asking for a big fee, no one pays it, knockers suts in the reserves there and then goes on a free to someone shit here or more likely abroad at the end of next season

 

[Green Jumper]

Players Out of Contract/Loan Ending in June:

Diallo.
Christie, Darikwa, Dawson, Hefele, Ribeiro, Ioannou.
Knockaert, Garner, Sow, Krovinovic, Freeman, Ameobi.
Murray.

Releasing all of these would likely reduce our first-team wage bill from around £30m to closer to £20m and (with loans currently scheduled to return) the squad size from over 30 to 25, both far more sustainable levels for our income.

There will likely be others who will exit too, but there needs to be a starting point, with CH given space to bring a few in.

 

[cheapseats]

Well at least Hughton will have a good crack at shaping the squad then. And it will be the mother of buyers markets in the summer after Covid comes home to roost on finances in football.
Even though many of these players did well for 3/4 of last season it’s hard to argue most of them haven’t been dogshit this season if not completely absent. And the loans have by and large been poor so apart from Garner and possible Krovinovic I’d slap the rest of them off and start bc again for next year.

 

[redforest]

Well at least Hughton will have a good crack at shaping the squad then. And it will be the mother of buyers markets in the summer after Covid comes home to roost on finances in football.
Even though many of these players did well for 3/4 of last season it’s hard to argue most of them haven’t been dogshit this season if not completely absent. And the loans have by and large been poor so apart from Garner and possible Krovinovic I’d slap the rest of them off and start bc again for next year.

Harsh but unfortunately rather close to the truth

 

[cheapseats]

Another factor is balancing the books-selling him mit bring more funds to get the players hughton needs. I thinking the other day if carvalho wud fit into this team. The second half against Wycombe he’d of thrived, second half against cov he’d be subbed off. What is encouraging is that, despite hughton having reputation of pragmatic football he has brought in flair players and seems to want a more fluid attacking 3-4 players who can create.

We will be lucky to get any fee for him. This summer is going to be a buyers market because of Covid and there will be large numbers of clubs hit hard financially desperate to sell and as a result a glut of “talented but as yet unproven” players available. I fervently hope I’m wrong because we need the money.....

 

[valspoodle]

You imagine that every club is at present feverishly planning for next season. The prospect of a topsy-turvey market in the Summer plus fans (possibly) being welcomed back in some way will be furrowing many a brow.

The clubs who benefit will be those who have the brightest ideas, the best plan and who carry out that plan. What price Forest being one of those?

 

[Erik]

The clubs who benefit will be those who have the brightest ideas, the best plan and who carry out that plan. What price Forest being one of those?

You need to send that joke to Carlos for him to use when he can get back on a stage again.

 

[BuckeyeRed]

Mighten?. Unless we can find a daft continental club with wads of cash and no VCR or YouTube I can’t see anyone paying big bucks for Mighten. For me he’s been pretty underwhelming this season. That’s not to say he won’t improve, but at the moment there are flashes of pace and enthusiasm at the core of anything good that he does. He seems to lack strength at the moment and frankly looks like a youth in a mans game.

That might change of course with time but in these financially constrained times I can’t see anyone laying 5+ M on the table for him on current evidence.

Of the kids Brennan J is the one who might attract a decent bid.

I understand what you're saying but CH has botched Mighten's development quite a bit IMO. That to me is what is underwhelming. When he scores he gets dropped then given 10 minute cameos here and there. If you're not going to play him in the first team then play him in the 23s, but to develop but he's got to play in one or the other. Instead he brings on Fatty Freeman today.

 

[cheapseats]

I understand what you're saying but CH has botched Mighten's development quite a bit IMO. That to me is what is underwhelming. When he scores he gets dropped then given 10 minute cameos here and there. If you're not going to play him in the first team then play him in the 23s, but to develop but he's got to play in one or the other. Instead he brings on Fatty Freeman today.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on "botching" Mightens development. He doesn't look a bad player but he doesn't look a worldy Compare him to Burke who played in a similar position but whose performances at a similar age literally demanded he got game time. I don't see that with Mighten (yet)-just flashes.
For me Hughton has been handed a total shit sandwich sorting things out this club this season and I don't blame him at all in battening down the hatches, going to what he knows and trusting experience. If we were in different position I fancy he might take a few more risks with younger players and then your criticism might be valid- but lets not get ahead of ourselves, we have been teetering on the edge all season (and 10 games of last) and all that matters is keeping the boat afloat in the championship...

 

[mysteryduck]

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on "botching" Mightens development. He doesn't look a bad player but he doesn't look a worldy Compare him to Burke who played in a similar position but whose performances at a similar age literally demanded he got game time. I don't see that with Mighten (yet)-just flashes.
For me Hughton has been handed a total shit sandwich sorting things out this club this season and I don't blame him at all in battening down the hatches, going to what he knows and trusting experience. If we were in different position I fancy he might take a few more risks with younger players and then your criticism might be valid- but lets not get ahead of ourselves, we have been teetering on the edge all season (and 10 games of last) and all that matters is keeping the boat afloat in the championship...

Think that argument would be stronger if Freeman was making any kind of positive contribution. I can understand Hughton wanting to trust that he'll come good, but it really doesn't seem to be happening, and he's not even our player to invest the time in.

 

[Otis Redding]

Think that argument would be stronger if Freeman was making any kind of positive contribution. I can understand Hughton wanting to trust that he'll come good, but it really doesn't seem to be happening, and he's not even our player to invest the time in.

Freeman's (so far) limited contribution has been the biggest disappointment for me.

Like most on here, he was the most encouraging signing for me, one that would significantly boost our creative output, but - and notwithstanding that he arrived with an injury that he's recently acknowledged, he and the medical people at both Sheffield United and here were unable to detect the exact extent of - since he regained full fitness his impact has been scant at best.

Sadly, he looks like a player at the beginning of a downward trajectory to me. That said, I'll be more-than-delighted if, over the next ten games-or-so, he demonstrates my assessment to be a typically premature one that fans have a tendancy to make in their ignorance.

 

[cheapseats]

Think that argument would be stronger if Freeman was making any kind of positive contribution. I can understand Hughton wanting to trust that he'll come good, but it really doesn't seem to be happening, and he's not even our player to invest the time in.

Yes, I buy that argument.
No idea why Hughton is persisting with Freeman-perhaps he sees something we don't (in training?). Perhaps he has a keen memory of him ripping up the championship not that long ago?. Maybe we have a cheap buy option for him and he's trying hard to tease out whether the old player is in there?.

I don't know, all I would say is that Mighten hasn't stuck his hand up hard enough with his performances. Lets hope its just a matter of time. Development isn't alway s linear.

 

[Green Jumper]

Unfortunately, the summer outlook may well be governed mainly by a stark financial situation.

Although we aren't party to the day-to-day financial situation, it seems likely that this season's operating losses will top £50m. I don't see Marinakis being either able or willing to lend enough to get that down to a similar end-of-year loss to 19/20.

In that eventuality, the only plausible way I can see the shortfall being made up is through the sales of Worall and Samba: this before a transfer budget is even considered.

Any spending would then have to be funded through the sales of the likes of Mighten and/or Johnson, to fund a few short-term contracts and/or loans, alongside carrying a significantly reduced wage bill next season (by simply releasing all out-of-contract players this summer).

Either way, it's safe to assume that next year's squad will be significantly different to this season's.

 

[EmmersonForest4]

I can’t see us getting much for samba at all since lockdown started he has made a load of mistakes, so if someone offers 10 mill for him I’d sell him but I doubt we’d get anything near that now. As for Worrall he’s a 15-20 mill man.

Looking at the finances it’s not good and we will need to sell to buy definitely but we have to sell to survive which is worrying. Is there no moratorium on FFP? Also are we not gonna get any solidarity payments from the prem?

Forest need serious quality to challenge next year as well with a non exceptional recruitment team who can’t quite seem to find that cheap as chips player that becomes stellar it’s all gonna rest on Hughtons transfer knowledge and coaching team next year.

 

[Ravi]

I can’t imagine many clubs will be willing to spend much given the financial hit they’ve taken this season, and with continuing uncertainty about what next season will look like in terms of matchday revenue.

 

[Otis Redding]

Forest need serious quality to challenge next year as well with a non exceptional recruitment team who can’t quite seem to find that cheap as chips player that becomes stellar it’s all gonna rest on Hughtons transfer knowledge and coaching team next year.

Since Hughton's arrival and Gary Brazil's promotion to a more wide-ranging role, along with the repercussions of Brexit, they effectively are the recruitment team.

 

[EmmersonForest4]

Since Hughton's arrival and Gary Brazil's promotion to a more wide-ranging role, along with the repercussions of Brexit, they effectively are the recruitment team.

Yes and to get promoted between Hughtons recruitment and his coaching they are going to have to do better for promotion. I don’t think personally looking at our finances we have a scoobies chance next season. I’m already writing is off unless some financial relief comes in. Compared to the parachute payment clubs we are at a serious disadvantage. It was hard pre covid never mind now. It would take a Bielsa to get us promoted.

 

[cheapseats]

I can’t see us getting much for samba at all since lockdown started he has made a load of mistakes, so if someone offers 10 mill for him I’d sell him but I doubt we’d get anything near that now. As for Worrall he’s a 15-20 mill man.

Looking at the finances it’s not good and we will need to sell to buy definitely but we have to sell to survive which is worrying. Is there no moratorium on FFP? Also are we not gonna get any solidarity payments from the prem?

Forest need serious quality to challenge next year as well with a non exceptional recruitment team who can’t quite seem to find that cheap as chips player that becomes stellar it’s all gonna rest on Hughtons transfer knowledge and coaching team next year.

What have you been smoking-15-20M for Worrall?. He’s a good player but he’s never in a million years worth that. My guess is 8-10 will secure him in this current fiscal situation.

 

[Ravi]

Preston wanted £10m for Ben Davies and agreed to a pandemic adjusted £1.6m plus a 20% sell on clause. I wouldn't make any assumptions about Worrall’s value at the moment, but it will be lower than it was before the first lockdown. Probably we will see more percent sell on clauses in the near future.

 

[cheapseats]

Preston wanted £10m for Ben Davies and agreed to a pandemic adjusted £1.6m plus a 20% sell on clause. I wouldn't make any assumptions about Worrall’s value at the moment, but it will be lower than it was before the first lockdown. Probably we will see more percent sell on clauses in the near future.

Spot on Ravi. I'm afraid there's going to be some buttock clenching differences between valuations for players between clubs in the summer. On a positive note from Forests perspective, maybe that will mean there will be value elsewhere in the chain for us to "exploit".
But on the subject of exploitation, maybe it will just be a temporary Covid blip but this issue will test the pyramid structure of football in the UK yet again at a time it can ill afford.
For me one of the sad things is that Liverpool were prepared to pull Prestons pants down like that. They ended up paying less than a months wages for many of their top players for Davies. leaving Preston with peanuts to plug their own financial hole and it seems clear, if it weren't already that there its literally no area of football that isn't going to be squeezed until it squeals in favour of the elite clubs. I'm not sure that's in anyones interests let alone them in the long term but there we are...

 

[Master Yates]

Preston wanted £10m for Ben Davies and agreed to a pandemic adjusted £1.6m plus a 20% sell on clause. I wouldn't make any assumptions about Worrall’s value at the moment, but it will be lower than it was before the first lockdown. Probably we will see more percent sell on clauses in the near future.

Davies was out of contract this summer though so would’ve gone for free.

I imagine 8m would turn our head for Joe.


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[Otis Redding]

Davies was out of contract this summer though so would’ve gone for free.

I imagine 8m would turn our head for Joe.

That sort of figure would be at the very, very top-end I suspect RR. I also expect any bid in that region is more likely to come from WBA, the Blunts or whichever club comes down with those two.