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The Relegation Dogfight 23/24

Cloughie1975

John Robertson
Nah.

I think people are coming round to the idea that 30 points is going to be enough this year and so Brentford in that scenario just need one more win, which they'll get from somewhere.

They might have been more at risk of there wasn't three clubs below them all at risk of taking the last spot, but don't think there's much chance all three get to 32 points, especially if Everton get another deduction.
Agreed-Brentford still have a home ‘banker’ against Sheffield United.
I can’t see them being in serious trouble.
 

Trents

John Robertson
The concern has to be the Sheffield and Burnley games.

If they have been relegated before we play them then they will be without pressure. How many times do we see relegated teams start to win a few games once the weight of pressure is lifted from them?
I'd still rather play them in that scenario than them having to get a result against us.
 

HappyHappyJoyJoy

Viv Anderson
The concern has to be the Sheffield and Burnley games.

If they have been relegated before we play them then they will be without pressure. How many times do we see relegated teams start to win a few games once the weight of pressure is lifted from them?
Generally, teams with no motivation perform significantly worse than teams with motivation.

It doesn't mean they can't win but that's how Bookmakers model those matches.
 

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
I'd still rather play them in that scenario than them having to get a result against us.

Yeah same.

The players are more likely to be "on the beach" - they'll be planning potential moves away as they won't want to stay at their respective clubs if relegation wage decreases are triggered in their contracts. They'll likely be half-arsed about it.

This is Southampton's run in where they needed to win 4 games to stay up. They had the fixtures to do it and all:

1712217333646.png



Similar story to Leeds after they beat us:

1712217388680.png


Both teams got worse as relegation got more likely/confirmed.

Forest the opposite, we got better after beating Brighton and sensed the opportunity of staying up.
 

HappyHappyJoyJoy

Viv Anderson
Yeah same.

The players are more likely to be "on the beach" - they'll be planning potential moves away as they won't want to stay at their respective clubs if relegation wage decreases are triggered in their contracts. They'll likely be half-arsed about it.

This is Southampton's run in where they needed to win 4 games to stay up. They had the fixtures to do it and all:

View attachment 37534


Similar story to Leeds after they beat us:

View attachment 37535

Both teams got worse as relegation got more likely/confirmed.

Forest the opposite, we got better after beating Brighton and sensed the opportunity of staying up.
It is professional not to try hard when there is no benefit to you or your club.

Why risk injury or suspension with no upside?
 

Project Zeus

Steve Chettle
Yeah, I've never bought the line of thought that already relegated teams suddenly get better.

The flip side is that they also don't have any motivation to win, whereas the other sides still fighting will have it in spades.

Sent from my SM-G990B using Tapatalk
 

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
It is professional not to try hard when there is no benefit to you or your club.

Why risk injury or suspension with no upside?

See Gonzalo Jara when he was in the final few months of his contract here ahead of the upcoming World Cup. He was actively running away from the bal and skirting any challenges. His sole focus was staying injury free so he could play in the World Cup and secure a contract elsewhere. He ended up joining Mainz who were playing in the Europa League...
 

HappyHappyJoyJoy

Viv Anderson
See Gonzalo Jara when he was in the final few months of his contract here ahead of the upcoming World Cup. He was actively running away from the bal and skirting any challenges. His sole focus was staying injury free so he could play in the World Cup and secure a contract elsewhere. He ended up joining Mainz who were playing in the Europa League...
Even if you're not angling for a move, a dubious red card and you miss games in the following season.
 

Trents

John Robertson
Yeah same.

The players are more likely to be "on the beach" - they'll be planning potential moves away as they won't want to stay at their respective clubs if relegation wage decreases are triggered in their contracts. They'll likely be half-arsed about it.

This is Southampton's run in where they needed to win 4 games to stay up. They had the fixtures to do it and all:

View attachment 37534


Similar story to Leeds after they beat us:

View attachment 37535

Both teams got worse as relegation got more likely/confirmed.

Forest the opposite, we got better after beating Brighton and sensed the opportunity of staying up.
I really think Sheff Utd will be down by the time we visit them. Already 10 points from safety. They will have 9 to play for by the time we meet and they still have Liverpool, Chelsea, Utd and Newcastle before then.
 

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
I really think Sheff Utd will be down by the time we visit them. Already 10 points from safety. They will have 9 to play for by the time we meet and they still have Liverpool, Chelsea, Utd and Newcastle before then.

Yeah I think that's highly possible.
 

Stocky Red

First Team Squad
I don’t think Bournemouth,Brentford,Everton and Fulham are easy meat.
If Luton win all 4 then fair play to them.

Agreed, Bournemouth are in good form and should at least score, Brentford and Everton are very much in the mix and will be fighting for their lives. Hopefully they have nothing to play for against Fulham.

The Bournemouth game is massive for them - they really need to win it and the pressure will be huge.
 

Strummer

Socialismo O Muerte!
LTLF Minion

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
Agreed, Bournemouth are in good form and should at least score, Brentford and Everton are very much in the mix and will be fighting for their lives. Hopefully they have nothing to play for against Fulham.

The Bournemouth game is massive for them - they really need to win it and the pressure will be huge.

Brentford are in a terrible run of form and Fulham have been dross away all season.

Bournemouth and Everton are harder but there's every possibility that Luton win 2, maybe 3 of them.
 

Gyros Peter

Sauce salad?
Apparently Everton find out about their latest charge after the weekends fixtures. They have Burnley at home in the Dyche cup, with Company I think serving a touchline ban, so that really is a must win for them given their likely getting a deduction two days later.
 

Gyros Peter

Sauce salad?
Brentford are in a terrible run of form and Fulham have been dross away all season.

Bournemouth and Everton are harder but there's every possibility that Luton win 2, maybe 3 of them.
There's every possibility they win none also - Luton's form is also dross and they're in the midst of an injury crisis.

I remember this time last year when the teams that struggled all season were all of a sudden going to put better than title winning form together. They didn't, and they rarely do.

It's not really worth worrying about - we just need to win a couple of games or more.
 

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
There's every possibility they win none also - Luton's form is also dross and they're in the midst of an injury crisis.

Agreed, but would rather not rely on teams not making 30 points for us to stay up, we're better than that and can sort our own problems out. Agree with your last sentence therefore.
 
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