Official Matchday Thread: Nottingham Forest v Everton: Saturday 2nd December.

[Red Dog in a Forest]

A quick review:

It all started so well...and then we proceeded to give up...until we were 3-1 down.

We are still scoring goals...but unfortunately the likes of Aina, Mangala and Wood are not as prolific as the likes of Awoniyi (MIA), Johnson (KIA), and Elanga...our current shining light when it comes to doing the business.

Defensively shocking, we need to shore up our defence to get something against Dyche's Everton.

The Good: MGW with perhaps his best performance this season, Elanga with the goal, the return of CHO, Murillo's pingers and Toffolo's crosses.

The Bad: Danilo, Dominguez and our defending stood out. As did our inept strike force.

The Ugly: their manager. He looks like a right gimp.

Special Mention: The crowd...nearly drowning out the droning Birtles.


The Last Game (Everton (H) - a 2-2 draw):

Navas

Aurier Worrall Felipe Lodi

Shelvey Freuler Colback

MGW Johnson

Wood

Unbelievable that the midfield above didn't see us losing 10-0. If only we had Johnson to score two goals again!


Proposed Lineup:

Vlachodimos

Aina Boly Murillo Toffolo

Sangare Mangala Dominguez

MGW CHO

Elanga

Subs:

Turner, Niakhate, Aurier, Montiel, Tavares, Williams, Danilo, Yates, Wood

4 wingers on the subs bench? I'm thinking we can go 3-5-2 if we're winning and Williams and Tavares (six goals from LM last season) can play as WBs.

Injuries:

Felipe and Awoniyi.

Laughing @ Derby:

Hennessy, McKenna, Omobamidele, Worrall, Kouyate, Aguilera, Santos and Origi.


Form:

Forest (H) - W2 D1 L1 GF10 GA8 - 14th (9th in the Home Form table)
Everton (A) - W3 D1 L2 GF9 GA11 - 19th (8th in the Away Form table)

* Everton have beaten Palace, West Ham and Brentford away from home this season. Oh dear...


Prediction:

Everton are set up to win away, they are also (obviously) better than their position suggests.

If we can somehow regain the defensive ruggedness of the games v Chelsea and Aston Villa then a clean sheet is a vague possibility.

If Elanga continues his form, and Wood gets one over on his old manager...then I am going for....

A 2-1 Forest win!!!

Still Reading(?!):

From a stats perspective, we have over-performed by 50% when playing three at the back. Losses were Arsenal, City, Liverpool and Man U...with an unexpected win at Chelsea providing this stat.

This is vs a 30% reduction in points when we play 2 CBs. In our 7 games (with two CBs) we have seven points, but draws against Luton and Burnley were expected wins, Villa was an unexpected win (as opposed to a draw), and Brighton was an unexpected loss (instead of a draw based on our home form). Palace (D) and West Ham (L) results were as expected as was (if we are being honest) the home draw against Brentford, compounded by Niakhate's sending off.

We achieve a +37.5% with Awoniyi in the side (expected points 8 v a return of 11 using the same logic as above).

We see a 60% drop-off with Awoniyi out of the side (the draw against Palace and Luton and the loss to Brighton...expected points 5 v a return of just two).

Do we go three at the back to overperform by 50%, that would make sense, but Awoniyi played in all those games anyway...so these stats...ultimately prove nothing.

Final Words:

COYRs!!!

 

[Red Dog in a Forest]

Note* I did my best / can someone explain how to set up a poll?

 

[duncanmckenzie]

Wood gets one over on his old club

When did Wood play for Everton?

 

[Red Dog in a Forest]

When did Wood play for Everton?

Ah...I meant Dyche....I'll edit it.

 

[horacetotherescue]

This isn’t a MUST win but very much an “if we don’t then they’ll be plenty of unhappy/angry people panicking and calling for heads to roll” game.


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[Redemption]

This isn’t a MUST win but very much an “if we don’t then they’ll be plenty of unhappy/angry people panicking and calling for heads to roll” game.


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Thank you for the nuance.

 

[Strummer]

Note* I did my best / can someone explain how to set up a poll?

If using the web interface, click on the „three dots“ menu on the right and the option to create a poll is there:

If you’re using Tapatalk on a mobile device, unfortunately Tapatalk doesn’t support polls.

If you can’t make a poll, post a reply and I’ll do it.

 

[Thomas]

Honestly, I expect a win and nothing less.

 

[enlightened]

We should win this but I think we'll lose. Everton battered Man Utd yesterday (apart from the result obviously) and I think we'd have conceded against them in the first half. They feel that they have been wronged and that can go a along way towards motivating a team. We are under a bit of pressure now and I think we'll be nervous and have trouble breaking them down.

 

[Omar Devone Little]

We should win this but I think we'll lose. Everton battered Man Utd yesterday (apart from the result obviously) and I think we'd have conceded against them in the first half. They feel that they have been wronged and that can go a along way towards motivating a team. We are under a bit of pressure now and I think we'll be nervous and have trouble breaking them down.

Everton have won more points this season and they've been to some places and won where we couldn't. In 6 away PL games they've taken 10 points which is the stuff of dreams for us. They also went to Villa and won in the cup so this will not be easy at all.

I think we'll be frustrated as hell for 90 mins and lose. We're conceding a couple of goals a game most weeks and I can see that continuing here.

Forest 1-2 Everton and Cooper hanging on by a thread by Saturday night unfortunately.

 

[Monkman]

That's certainly a distinct possibility (the result / scoreline, not Cooper hanging on by a thread). But also there's the possibility that after a full uninterrupted week together our good players play like they can, and fight hard like they can, and we grind out a really positive result. It'll be a tough game though, of that I'm sure.

 

[Project Zeus]

Everton have won more points this season and they've been to some places and won where we couldn't. In 6 away PL games they've taken 10 points which is the stuff of dreams for us. They also went to Villa and won in the cup so this will not be easy at all.

I think we'll be frustrated as hell for 90 mins and lose. We're conceding a couple of goals a game most weeks and I can see that continuing here.

Forest 1-2 Everton and Cooper hanging on by a thread by Saturday night unfortunately.

Do you get any enjoyment out of this hobby, mate? Genuine question, because it can't be any fun spending so much time supporting a team you think is going to lose every game.

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[Speeler]

As much as I don't like Everton, they do seem very committed at present, probably more so now..

 

[Omar Devone Little]

Do you get any enjoyment out of this hobby, mate? Genuine question, because it can't be any fun spending so much time supporting a team you think is going to lose every game.

Not really at the moment.

 

[Monkman]

Not convinced Sangare will be available - in his post-match interview Cooper said he'd had quite a bad illness and had lost some weight. So I'd go:

Vlachodimos
Aina Niakhate Murillo Toffolo
Yates Mangala Dominguez
CHO MGW Elanga

Yates ahead of Danilo for this one for me - I'd like Dominguez returned to the front of that midfield 3 pressing high, so I'd prefer Yates behind him over a slightly out of sorts / positionally less disciplined Danilo.

Not sure how that front 3 lines up, whether it's Elanga as a 9, MGW as a false 9 etc, but there must be a way to combine them effectively. I'm also not sure how effective Wood will be against Everton and a manager who knows his game inside out.

(I wouldn't be against Boly ahead of Niakhate either.)

 

[Berkshire Red]

Not convinced Sangare will be available - in his post-match interview Cooper said he'd had quite a bad illness and had lost some weight. So I'd go:

Vlachodimos
Aina Niakhate Murillo Toffolo
Yates Mangala Dominguez
CHO MGW Elanga

Yates ahead of Danilo for this one for me - I'd like Dominguez returned to the front of that midfield 3 pressing high, so I'd prefer Yates behind him over a slightly out of sorts / positionally less disciplined Danilo.

Not sure how that front 3 lines up, whether it's Elanga as a 9, MGW as a false 9 etc, but there must be a way to combine them effectively. I'm also not sure how effective Wood will be against Everton and a manager who knows his game inside out.

(I wouldn't be against Boly ahead of Niakhate either.)

This is a game where both Yates and Boly come in to do a job. I'd even consider Yates for Dominguez if Sangare is fit and well. They'll look to bombard us so we need to be better prepared than we were against Wets Ham.

 

[Monkman]

Yeah, that's kind of where I am. This game feels made for Yates, and I'm not a "we never win without Yatesy!" headcase

 

[enlightened]

Yeah, that's kind of where I am. This game feels made for Yates, and I'm not a "we never win without Yatesy!" headcase

Missed a sitter on Saturday ...

 

[Rzar]

Cooper has a knack of getting timely wins, I think this'll be one of them & Everton will start to feel like the worlds against them with difficult fixtures coming up.

 

[Monkman]

Missed a sitter on Saturday ...

I'd argue that wasn't a sitter. It's a good chance but he had to generate all the power on that header. I think plenty of players fail to score that. It was a good save too.

 

[enlightened]

I'd argue that wasn't a sitter. It's a good chance but he had to generate all the power on that header. I think plenty of players fail to score that. It was a good save too.

Head it downwards and it's in. One of the first things you're taught.

 

[brianmac1]

This isn’t a MUST win but very much an “if we don’t then they’ll be plenty of unhappy/angry people panicking and calling for heads to roll” game.


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I think this is a must win game, or at least not lose. there is a lot of fans think we are missing Johno, I don,t think we are.
He is not breaking many pots at tottnam. Our defence has let us down. we are better without him. we should have at least 9 more points
than we have, from winning positions (without Johno).

 

[valspoodle]

Play an Aston Villa type game and we'll win, play a Brighton or Luton style game and we might struggle.
I go for a revitalising game and a good win.

 

[tomw94]

Cooper has a couple of dilemmas for this one.

• Midfield: You have to guess Sangare is going to miss this one as according to Cooper he has been "very poorly and lost a lot of weight", sounds like potential severe food poisoning? I can see Kouyate or Yates coming in for this one to help with physicality, especially from set pieces. Would not be surprised if there are 2 midfield spots up for grabs considering that Dominguez has had 2 poor matches in a row, Danilo being equally as poor.
• Upfront: Do we play an out and out striker? I personally believe if Wood is on the pitch the last 20 minutes vs Brighton that we probably nick a point at the very least. I think our play style is best served to him coming off the bench when the opposition has more tired legs, so his lack of mobility is less of a factor and does not stop our own free flowing counters.

Odysseas
Aurier Boly Murillo Niakhate
Yates Mangala Dominguez
CHO MGW Elanga

I would go with MGW as a false 9 so we have the option of Wood to come on for the last 20. Wood will be better against the tried legs that the front 3 have just ran into the ground + he will provide support from opposition corners.
I'd have Yates given the freedom to make runs into the box just to provide an extra target, even if he does have a 50p head.
We should bring back Boly + Aurier for this one and even have Niakhate at LB. I think this game is going to be so physical with Everton launching balls into the box that we need as many big guys at the back as possible. Having Yates in the middle should also help with this. Then we can have the free flowing CHO, MGW & Elanga breaking away with Yates & occasionally Dominguez getting up to support.

When you look at Everton currently you would think it would be typical Forest to cave in and lose. However, whenever Coopers back has been against the wall we are always a different team. We will win this one, I promise.
4-1 Forest. COYR!

 

[YellowBelly Red]

Get someone with pace at Ashley Young from the get go, and hopefully get him booked.

Garner is still pulling a lot of strings in midfield, so lets cut out the set pieces and free-kicks.