The Relegation Dogfight 23/24

[glosterred]

Really? We've been battered like them?

The amount of wrist slitting is ridiculous.

We are two points closer to the relegation zone than after SC's last game. After a cpl of decent wins, the style of play has deteriorated some what, and a few of the Cooper outers are now questioning whether Nuno is the right man for the job.....it's not a great look is it....

I can't help but empathies with some of the 'wrist slitting' tbh

 

[Alf-engelos Mindminackers]

We are two points closer to the relegation zone than after SC's last game. After a cpl of decent wins, the style of play has deteriorated some what, and a few of the Cooper outers are now questioning whether Nuno is the right man for the job.....it's not a great look is it....

I can't help but empathies with some of the 'wrist slitting' tbh

It's funny really.

Some posters were telling us that, despite never once being in the relegation zone and floating around 15th, we were definitely going down under Cooper and that we just had to get rid and accept the standard which Cooper had us at was relegation certainty.

Fast forward several months and being closer to a relegation place on points difference, whilst being stood in the same league position he was sacked for, is deemed as a place for optimism.

Maybe if people wanted us to be more optimistic they shouldn't have painted the our current position as all-doomed? Just a thought.

 

[Monkman]

If you're seeing much optimism around here these days then I wouldn't like to see what you class as pessimism

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

Forest:

Palace H
Fulham H
Spurs A
Wolves H
Everton A
Man City H
Sheff Utd A
Chelsea H
Burnley A

Max: 17
Min: 7
Expected: 10-13
Final total: 35-38 (pre-points deduction)

----

Luton:

Spurs A
Arsenal A
Bournemouth H
Man City A
Brentford H
Wolves A
Everton H
West Ham A
Fulham H

Max: 14
Min: 5
Expected: 6-9
Final total: 28-31


I've pegged that last game for Luton against Fulham as a win for them, because that'll be proverbial "Fulham on their holidays" and Luton, if they're still in touching distance, will probably know it's win or bust. Hopefully if that is the case then they've not accumulated the points in the run up to get over 30 points with a win vs Fulham because if they manage that I think we might be toast.

Odds are in our favour. Four points of fewer points deduction makes that doubly so.

Based on this and the confirmation it's 4 points then I think we stay up.

 

[Strummer]

Based on this and the confirmation it's 4 points then I think we stay up.

You are a braver man than me!

Six or more, I reckon Forest would be sunk. However at four - and with an appeal to come - then at least the team have a goal, and that goal has to be to better the results of Luton and Everton.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

You are a braver man than me!

Six or more, I reckon Forest would be sunk. However at four - and with an appeal to come - then at least the team have a goal, and that goal has to be to better the results of Luton and Everton.

Just bettering Luton will do.

 

[GaribaldiReds]

Burnley not out of it.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

Burnley not out of it.

They'll need 4 wins from 9.

Think it's too much for them. Narrowly beating 10-man Brentford isn't inducing panic stations. They'll probably be down by the time we play them.

 

[GaribaldiReds]

They'll need 4 wins from 9.

Think it's too much for them. Narrowly beating 10-man Brentford isn't inducing panic stations. They'll probably be down by the time we play them.

Unlikely, yes, but they have Sheffield United, Everton and us to play. We're all fairly evenly matched on current form (1 win in 6). Stranger things have happened.

Edit - actually 0 wins in 6 for Everton. They're shite.

 

[Bonfy177]

 

[Rockabilly]

 

[Redemption]

Next 4 games

Everton: Bournemouth, Newcastle, Burnley, Chelsea

Luton: Spurs, Arsenal, Bournemouth, Manchester City

Forest: Palace, Fulham, Spurs, Wolves

We need to deliver now.

 

[Trents]

International break and then down to business. The next 3:

Palace(H) - Palace haven't won away ages, early Nov. Must win.
Fulham(H) - The posh Londoners blow hot and cold. Beat Spurs and Utd but couldn't beat either Everton or Burnley in recent months so that should give us hope.
Spurs(A) - Spurs are really good at home and fighting for Champs League spots. Can't see us getting owt from that one.

So, Heart says 6 points. Head says 3 or 4 points.

In same period:
Everton - Bournemouth(A), Newcastle(A), Burnley(H) - 3, maybe 4 points.
Luton - Spurs(A), Arsenal(A), Bournemouth(H) - 3 points max there. Maybe less if Muff do us another favour

Burnley only 4 points behind but still don't see them or Sheff Utd climbing out of the bottom 3

If we aren't back above Luton after those matches, I'll start fearing the worst.

 

[Collymore!]

Next 4 games

Everton: Bournemouth, Newcastle, Burnley, Chelsea

Luton: Spurs, Arsenal, Bournemouth, Manchester City

Forest: Palace, Fulham, Spurs, Wolves

We need to deliver now.

I’ll go:

Everton: D, L, W, L
Luton: L, L, W, L
Forest: L, L, L, L

Also,

Burnley: L, W, L, W
Brentford: D, W, L, W

 

[Redemption]

I’ll go:

Everton: D, L, W, L
Luton: L, L, W, L
Forest: L, L, L, L

Also,

Burnley: L, W, L, W
Brentford: D, W, L, W

Optimism unbridled.

 

[Captain Sinister]

When we actually win another game I might start to believe we can overtake Luton.
I just don’t know when we will win again.
Palace?
Glasner has got them believing.
Fulham?
No way!
Arsenal, City?
You have to be mad to expect us to win.
Away games?
Come off it!

 

[Red Dog in a Forest]

The revised form based approach to our survival chances…don’t shoot the messenger!

Last Six: Points Gained / Average Position of Teams Played

*Palace - 5 points - 12th
Forest - 4 points - 9th
*Everton - 3 points - 7th
Luton - 2 points - 10th
Brentford - 1 point - 7th


Last Ten: Points Gained / Average Position of Teams Played

*Palace - 11 points - 13th
Forest - 8 points - 9th
Brentford - 7 points - 8th
Luton - 7 points - 11th
*Everton - 5 points - 7th


Takeaways:

• Palace have the best form, but had the easiest run of games.
• Everton have the worst form, but had the hardest run of games.

================

Next nine / ten games to be played - applied to current table (based on last 10 games form):

Palace - 40 points
Brentford - 32 points
Forest - 28 points
Luton - 28 points
***Everton - 26 points

***This was 30 points before predicted 4 point deduction.


Next ten (factor applied):

• Plus 50% points for Forest, Brentford and Everton (easier run of games over next nine / ten).
• Minus 50% points for Luton and Palace (harder run of games over next nine / ten).

Palace - 35 points
Brentford - 35 points
Forest - 32 points
***Everton - 29 points
Luton - 26 points

***This was 33 points before predicted 4 point deduction.


Personal Opinion: we stay up!

3 wins and 2 draws sees us safe:

• 3 Wins from; Palace (H), Wolves (H), Everton (A), S.United (A) or Burnley (A)
• 2 Draws from; Fulham (H), Wolves (H), Everton (A) or Chelsea (H)
• Beat Palace (H) and we need just 2 wins & 2 draws from 8 remaining games.
• Beat Palace (H) and Everton (A) and we need just 1 wins & 2 draws from the 7 other games.
• We might get 1-2 points back on appeal? (As might Everton)

Remaining Games Average Position / Fixtures v the Bottom 7 / European Impact:


Luton = 9th

B - 34th game (H)
E - 36th game (H)

Burnley / S.United - N/A

• Luton play 2 EPL fixtures against the bottom 7 at Home.
• Luton are potentially impacted twice by clubs playing in Europe (City - QF) (W.Ham - SF)
• Luton could be almost relegated by the last five games - they need Home wins…fast!


Forest = 12th

P - 30th (H)
E - 34th (A)

Burnley / S.United - both (A)

• Forest play 3 of their 4 EPL fixtures against the bottom 7 Away.
• Forest are likely impacted by clubs playing in Europe once (City - SF)
• Away from is key!!

Everton = 13th

F - 34th (H)
B - 35th (H)

Burnley / S.United - both (H)

• Everton play all 4 of their 4 EPL fixtures against the bottom 7 at Home.
• Everton are not impacted by clubs playing in Europe.
• Everton have 1 fixture to be re-arranged.
• Everton v Brentford could be huge!!
• Everton are away to Arsenal on the final day…Relegation / Title decider!!
• Home form is key!!


Brentford = 12th

L - 34th (A)
E - 35th (A)

S.United (H)

• Brentford also play 2 of their 3 EPL fixtures against the bottom 7 Away.
• Brentford are impacted by clubs playing in Europe once (Villa - QF)
• Brentford have 1 fixture to be re-arranged.
• Brentford’s Everton and Luton games could be huge!!
• Not out of it yet.


Palace = 8th

F - 30th (A)

Burnley / S.United - N/A

• Palace only play one Away game against teams in the bottom 7.
• Palace are impacted 3 times by clubs playing in Europe once (City - QF) (Pool - QF) (WH - QF)
• Palace have 1 fixture to be re-arranged.
• Palace have by far the most difficult fixtures..but have the most points on the board..eight ahead of Forest…pretty much safe!


Note* It’s as we were imo. 4 points and a possibility to appeal…Everton likely to get the same points deduction…one of the easiest run-ins…at least we have a target now!!

 

[Thomas]

waka waka at turf moor will hit like f***ing CRACK, we're staying up

 

[Cloughie1975]

When we actually win another game I might start to believe we can overtake Luton.
I just don’t know when we will win again.
Palace?
Glasner has got them believing.
Fulham?
No way!
Arsenal, City?
You have to be mad to expect us to win.
Away games?
Come off it!

We’ve played the Arse twice already,Captain-although I’m not expecting much change
at Tottenham.
I think we’ve got a fighting chance against Palace and Fulham.

 

[Erik]

I think Forest will continue to bumble along at their current rate of there or thereabouts just under a point a game and gain 8 more points.

Hopefully Luton will get less than 6 more from their remaining games. They are bad enough to.

 

[Vikare]

I think Forest will continue to bumble along at their current rate of there or thereabouts just under a point a game and gain 8 more points.

Hopefully Luton will get less than 6 more from their remaining games. They are bad enough to.

But I was promised lower mid-table at a minimum.

 

[Erik]

But I was promised lower mid-table at a minimum.

17th is the ultimate in lower mid table.

And being honest, I'd have settled for it before the season began and if we stay up I'd be ok with 17th-14th next season. Maybe I lack ambition.

I don't think we can make the jump to mid table, top ten and then top 6 as easily as some seem to think it can be done - Amongst them it appears, our owner. Ambition is absolutely fine but it needs to be tempered with realism and before a baby can dream of winning a marathon first they have to walk.

But hey ho. If the expectation is that then I will expect it and nothing less.

 

[Vikare]

17th is the ultimate in lower mid table.

And being honest, I'd have settled for it before the season began and if we stay up I'd be ok with 17th-14th next season. Maybe I lack ambition.

I don't think we can make the jump to mid table, top ten and then top 6 as easily as some seem to think it can be done - Amongst them it appears, our owner. Ambition is absolutely fine but it needs to be tempered with realism and before a baby can dream of winning a marathon first they have to walk.

But hey ho. If the expectation is that then I will expect it and nothing less.

I agree.

It was a tongue in cheek comment.

 

[Bonfy177]

When we actually win another game I might start to believe we can overtake Luton.
I just don’t know when we will win again.
Palace?
Glasner has got them believing.
Fulham?
No way!
Arsenal, City?
You have to be mad to expect us to win.
Away games?
Come off it!

, Cheer up Captain, do ya want me to draw ya a nice picture that you can enlarge, print off and hang in ya dining room for you and Mrs S to enjoy ?

 

[Cortez the Killer]

I still have PTSD from that Fulham game. I'm not sure about the forthcoming game with them. Prove me wrong please, Forest.

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