The Relegation Dogfight 23/24

[andyd]

Have we honestly forgotten that Luton just got battered 1-5 at home by a team with nothing to play for who's star striker isn't playing for them anymore because he's leaving?

Luton. Are. Awful.

Talk of them getting 10 points from 4 games is absolutely laughable.

Everton are managed by pretty much the only manager in football who actually likes Forest, genuinely don't see Dyche letting them mail that game in, but Luton may still beat them because they're dreadful whether they beat us and Liverpool or not. West Ham are a different beast at home and will beat them. Fulham are actually a very good football team and will beat them as well. Wolves will be a lot healthier at the weekend and very likely win or at least draw. Luton aren't getting more than 4 or 5 points max folks, still entirely in Forest's hands if they just sort themselves out and show they actually want to stay in this league. Still think a win and a draw and we're fine. Or a win and two points back from our friends at the appeals commission. Up to the players.

 

[Mr. Blonde]

Have we honestly forgotten that Luton just got battered 1-5 at home by a team with nothing to play for who's star striker isn't playing for them anymore because he's leaving?

I haven't

 

[Robertson]

Luton did lose easily to Brentford but as I’m pretty sure I mentioned at the time Brentford did not have “nothing to play for”, they needed a win to all but guarantee their league status, and this was their best opportunity. Which fair enough, they took. Another win against Everton at the weekend would do it for sure, so I’d expect them to turn up again.

 

[Mr. Blonde]

As I mentioned I would genuinely love to see some stats on results between nowt to play for sides vs summat to play for sides over the final games of a season

Can't be arsed to look into it myself, mind!

 

[Robertson]

As I mentioned I would genuinely love to see some stats on results between nowt to play for sides vs summat to play for sides over the final games of a season

Can't be arsed to look into it myself, mind!

I definitely think there can be a hangover of a game or two once a goal has been achieved mathematically - promotion, euro qualification, safety, whatever. But if the season carries on after that, yeah it probably reverts to normal form. I’ve been a bit doomy about Fulham not bothering on the final day, but you’d hope Silva will still have them focused, yeah.

 

[Larry Lansbury]

Edwards said after Luton’s defeat on Saturday that they lacked urgency and intensity. That’s one of there main strengths-and that was in a game that they would have pencilled in to get some points. We need to keep positive, lots of points to still play for and it looking like we won’t need a lot more.

 

[Notcher]

I know there's nothing to play for in terms of survival or Europe for some teams but don't forget these guys have got good win and league position bonuses. I know for a fact at some clubs they were on around £5-£10k per point at some lower table clubs 10 years ago so christ knows what it is now. There's good wedge in it for players to pick up points.

 

[Listen 'ere young man]

As I mentioned I would genuinely love to see some stats on results between nowt to play for sides vs summat to play for sides over the final games of a season

Can't be arsed to look into it myself, mind!

Here's one, a 6th place side in the championship at home vs a side with nothing to play for in the final league match with a GD swing of 8? required to prevent a play off slot. What could go wrong.

There are Sabri season vibes with this team, just inching their way out of contention slowly every game, the GD could well come into play this time around too, with both Luton and Burnley. It doesn't bear thinking about.



Sent from my EVR-L29 using Tapatalk

 

[DizzyBala]

Down to us, Burnley and Luton then. f***ing depressing that we've spent what we've spent, had a year on both and we're just as shit.

 

[andyd]

Down to us, Burnley and Luton then. f***ing depressing that we've spent what we've spent, had a year on both and we're just as shit.

We aren't.

We're 5 points clear based on what what we've done on the pitch and arguably 7+ MORE points clear from the way we've been turned over by the PGMOL. It's a fallacy that we're as bad as the bottom 3 all things being equal. That we might go down is entirely down to PSR and the PGMOL, not what we've done on the pitch. Which is mental and shows how bad they are because we've also been rubbish on the pitch.

 

[eyupmeduck]

Just to add to the discussion as some of the chat here resembles last year with Leeds in particular being seen as having an easy run in with the teams they faced being "on the beach" or winnable home games.

Everton - Final 4 was won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 - 7 pts (1 point was Wolves, 3 was Bournemouth who were both "On the beach").

7/12 points.

Leeds - Final 4 drew 1, lost 3 - The 1 point was against Champions league chasing Newcastle, West Ham and Spurs were "on the beach" and battered them.

1/12 points.

Leicester - Final 4, won 1, drew 1 4 points, they lost against "on the beach Fulham" but did beat OTB West Ham on the last day. The draw was against champions league chasing Newcastle.

4/12 points

Southampton - Final 4, lost 3, drew 1 so 1 point. They also lost against OTB Fulham, the draw was final day freakshow with the scousers who were probably OTB. Still it wasn't a remarkable turnaround in form even though relegation for them had been confirmed.

1/12 points

We got 8 points, 2 of those were from OTB teams.

8/12 points

Obviously it means nothing but the teams that went down didn't do well against anyone really and in particular the teams that were "On the beach" didn't do anyone any favours really.



Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[TrentEndMisty]

We aren't.

We're 5 points clear based on what what we've done on the pitch and arguably 7+ MORE points clear from the way we've been turned over by the PGMOL. It's a fallacy that we're as bad as the bottom 3 all things being equal. That we might go down is entirely down to PSR and the PGMOL, not what we've done on the pitch. Which is mental and shows how bad they are because we've also been rubbish on the pitch.

Yes, that post should be pinned. Similar to posts that say “PSR, appeals, yada, we need to get the points on the pitch.” The logical fallacy being that we have: the points being taken off is is why we are now under pressure. Five points clear that this stage would be a huge buffer.

 

[DizzyBala]

We aren't.

We're 5 points clear based on what what we've done on the pitch and arguably 7+ MORE points clear from the way we've been turned over by the PGMOL. It's a fallacy that we're as bad as the bottom 3 all things being equal. That we might go down is entirely down to PSR and the PGMOL, not what we've done on the pitch. Which is mental and shows how bad they are because we've also been rubbish on the pitch.

We can't pull away from them, even by breaching PSR.

 

[andyd]

We can't pull away from them, even by breaching PSR.

Everything being equal we’d be 13 points clear of them on 39 based on games of football. This is a very difficult league. If you genuinely thing Forest should have many more than 40 points, even with a dreadful bottom 3, then your expectations are too high. We aren’t very good, but if you can’t see that without the outside factors that we (as in the players and manager not the club owners and accountants) can’t control we’d be miles clear of them then no one on here will convince you otherwise.

But in the basic terms of playing fair games of football we’re miles clear of the bottom 3.

 

[Captain Sinister]

“We will beat Everton, they are really poor”.
Question: did Liverpool deliberately lose last night to maintain Everton’s top tier status, or is Everton a bit better than we gave them credit for?

 

[Redemption]

did Liverpool deliberately throw away their chance at becoming champions last night to maintain Everton’s top tier status

FTFY

 

[Dirk Furtull]

“We will beat Everton, they are really poor”.
Question: did Liverpool deliberately lose last night to maintain Everton’s top tier status, or is Everton a bit better than we gave them credit for?

In which game? Against us they were shit. Didn't see last night's game so can't say.

Sent from my LE2113 using Tapatalk

 

[chaospunx]

Im sick of hearing Luton are awfull I agree they are awful we also looked awfull on Sunday but they are going to fight there bollox off and I think they will get at least 1 win we are absolutely sleepwalking ourselves down if luton move above us this weekend i cant see us leapfrogging them

 

[RichNFFC]

Lad who sits behind me at Forest said that he spoke to Dan Taylor, who said Marinakis is in touch with Marco Silva regularly and the topic of playing Luton on the final day has come up. Silva will have them playing to win.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

This is a very difficult league. If you genuinely thing Forest should have many more than 40 points, even with a dreadful bottom 3, then your expectations are too high.

 

[Redemption]

Lad who sits behind me at Forest said that he spoke to Dan Taylor, who said Marinakis is in touch with Marco Silva regularly and the topic of playing Luton on the final day has come up. Silva will have them playing to win.

Is that a form of Corruption?

 

[Robertson]

Is that a form of Corruption?

No, I don’t think suggesting other teams might try to win their matches is a form of corruption.

That said, I’m not convinced that EM either has much sway over Marco Silva or whether such exhortations are really needed.

 

[andyd]

Im sick of hearing Luton are awfull I agree they are awful we also looked awfull on Sunday but they are going to fight there bollox off and I think they will get at least 1 win we are absolutely sleepwalking ourselves down if luton move above us this weekend i cant see us leapfrogging them

My comments about Luton being awful are in response to the hysteria that they are definitely going to get 10 or 12 points from 4 games. They aren’t. They’ll get 4 or 5, 7 absolute tops if the wind blows in the right direction.

We are also awful and don’t look like winning a game of football so we’re in massive trouble and have every chance of going down, anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded. However, we ARE miles better than Luton in real terms without PSR and the PGMOL, like 13 points or more better. Sadly that matters not at this point because we are where we are. It’s on the players to show how much better they really are than Luton over the next 4 games, and it’s totally legitimate to question whether they have the courage, confidence and quality to do it. I hope they do, but I’m not convinced now.

But Luton are still awful.

 

[Redemption]

No, I don’t think suggesting other teams might try to win their matches is a form of corruption.

That said, I’m not convinced that EM either has much sway over Marco Silva or whether such exhortations are really needed.

I dont fully understand why we need to know EM is in regular contact with Silva to know that Fulham will play to win. With this information I (mis)read between the lines as EM had told Silva his Fulham must win.

 

[T Francis]

Sounds like your head is as fun a place to be as mine!

Yeah, 10 points is a bit OTT
I’ve been on a downer regarding all things football this week and can’t see that improving any time soon.
I know we’re better than Luton, the first half v Fulham showed that. We just aren’t looking like replicating that.
I wish I shared your optimism about our 2 home games but can’t get my head to think we’ll get more than 2 points this season.
Can still see Luton picking up 4 or 5 tho!
I think that ultimately PSR will relegate us. Hope I’m wrong