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The Relegation Dogshite 23/24

J

JonnoSnr

Youth Team
Trents said:
The one good thing about Everton winning is another nail in the coffin for Burnley before we visit on the last day.
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Yes I think that result psychologically sends Burnley down now. A vastly inferior GD and 6 points behind is too much of an ask for them.

Unfortunately I believe it's probably a result that keeps Everton up too. Based on nothing at all my feeling is they'll get hit with a maximum of 4 points deduction today, probably reduced to 3 on appeal. But with a game in hand and a very nice run in, plus being their usual spawny selves they'll be safe.
 
Llama

Llama

Youth Team
Statistically (if you're into that sort of thing), our run in is easier - admittedly from a few games ago and we've already stuffed up Luton and, to an extent, Palace. Obviously Luton got a decent result against Bournemouth who seem to be believe it's in their constitution that pissing off Forest is something they simply must do, but it's unlikely they'll keep it up.

We can only hope that we'll grind out a few against some of those coming up and they'll slip at some point. We broke the trend last year by being consistent - but it's not something you'd traditionally associate with lower placed teams. It's perfectly plausible that they could get a result like they did at the weekend, but then end up drawing several of those upcoming home games. Here's hoping anyway.
Screenshot 2024-04-08 at 09.44.43.png
 
Trents

Trents

John Robertson
Llama said:
Statistically (if you're into that sort of thing), our run in is easier - admittedly from a few games ago and we've already stuffed up Luton and, to an extent, Palace. Obviously Luton got a decent result against Bournemouth who seem to be believe it's in their constitution that pissing off Forest is something they simply must do, but it's unlikely they'll keep it up.

We can only hope that we'll grind out a few against some of those coming up and they'll slip at some point. We broke the trend last year by being consistent - but it's not something you'd traditionally associate with lower placed teams. It's perfectly plausible that they could get a result like they did at the weekend, but then end up drawing several of those upcoming home games. Here's hoping anyway.View attachment 37856
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Ratings so close they can't really be read into. Also missed Everton's game in hand v Liverpool and Palace v Newcastle which would increase their respective difficulties.
 
N

NFFCForeverRed

First Team Squad
MaxiRobriguez said:
Luton:

Man City A - 0
Brentford H - 3
Wolves A - 1
Everton H - 1
West Ham A - 0
Fulham H - 3
- 8 points


Forest:

Wolves H - 3
Everton A - 1
Man City H - 0
Sheff Utd A - 3
Chelsea H - 1
Burnley A - 3
- 11 points

I think Forest have the favourable run in looking at that. Forest have the two worst sides in the league still to come and both are likely to be relegated by the time we play them, many of their players will be angling for moves and/or not getting injured in meaningless games for them. Home game against against out of form Wolves is a similar sort of game to the recent Fulham match. We've got two back-up games against Everton and Chelsea which you could also see Forest sneaking a win in if needs must.

Luton wise: Think Brentford will beat Sheff Utd at home in their next game which will put them 7 clear of Luton and at that they'll probably think they're safe. They've got an easy run in so even if they lost to Luton they'd still have four other games to grab a point or three. But Wolves away isn't easy and Everton is harder for them than it is us (as Everton are a similar dogged side just with more individual quality). West Ham chasing final European spot potentially which could be a tough game then they end with a home banker against one of the worst away sides already on their holiday.

Think the bookies have it right at 2/1 Forest relegation odds. Might well go down to the final game and I hope by that point we're at least 2 points better of than Luton with an unassailable goal difference. Would probably take needing a draw at Burnley to survive at this point, as horrific that might be final game.
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The only problem with your analysis is that you have us winning two Away games and drawing one. That's massively better than our statistical average in the Prem.
 
M

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
NFFCForeverRed said:
The only problem with your analysis is that you have us winning two Away games and drawing one. That's massively better than our statistical average in the Prem.
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Statistical averages aren't going to be the determinig factor when we're playing dross teams like Sheff Utd and Burnley and need to win to stay up.
 
M

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
NFFCForeverRed said:
No....we have been playing a lot of away teams that are dross in the last 2 seasons and have not done well.
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We beat the bottom of the league team away last year.

And we were winning against the second bottom team and looking reasonably comfortable until we cocked it up.

We're better this year apparently and the two bottom teams are worse than last year, so here's to 6 points.
 
Captain Sinister

Captain Sinister

Senior doom Monger
I have updated my end of season forecast.
Relegated:
SUFC 17 points
Burnley 27 Points
Luton 31 points.
Not relegated:
Everton 32 points (after this 2 point deduction)
Forest 33 points
Palace 35 Points
Brentford 38 points

I have a draw v Wolves in those numbers!
 
Trents

Trents

John Robertson
Captain Sinister said:
I have updated my end of season forecast.
Relegated:
SUFC 17 points
Burnley 27 Points
Luton 31 points.
Not relegated:
Everton 32 points (after this 2 point deduction)
Forest 33 points
Palace 35 Points
Brentford 38 points

I have a draw v Wolves in those numbers!
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I think 32/33 points will be enough. Not sure where you see us getting them from though.
 
chaospunx

chaospunx

Viv Anderson
MaxiRobriguez said:
Statistical averages aren't going to be the determinig factor when we're playing dross teams like Sheff Utd and Burnley and need to win to stay up.
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Brave thing to say when have we recently put teams like this to the sword I can see them being horrible games neither team is going to want to give us anything I see a point out of city at home more realistic than even 4 points from these 2 matches and im crossing everything to be wrong

Edit just reread your posts and missed your irony first time 🤣
 
C

Colbackstreet Boys

Jim Brennan
One of our most acute problems, and it's possibly the biggest one (amongst a crowded field) in my view but isn't spoken about enough - is our stubborn refusal to put teams under any sort of pressure on opposition teams in the final 15 minutes plus stoppage time.

I went back through our games, and out of the 40 goals we have scored all season, only 4 (10%) have come after the 80 minute mark. It's a quite pathetic record when you think about it. To put that in perspective, Blades have scored 6....

This squad (and coaching staff) seem to have a mentality that if a game isn't won by 77/78 minutes, then it's best to rest legs, limit the damage and move on to the next game. We just have no interest in taking risks and pushing teams in the late stages of games. We've seen it time after time in crucial games where we have been largely competitive and where points are there to be had, the energy and tempo just drops off a cliff if we're not ahead on 80 minutes and its the substitutions compound that. We just let these games pass us by.

Brentford (A), Brighton (A), Bournemouth (A) just a few notable examples. But there are so many more. Against Brentford, despite being on an awful run and conceding late goals, we barely registered a shot after going behind and those 10 minutes of stoppage time were probably the easiest they've had to navigate all season. Bournemouth we barely tested 10 men and Brighton we offered absolutely nothing.

We saw it again last night - after that third went in the intensity died, the heads dropped and Nuno whipped off MGW and Wood (admittedly the former was a precaution, so fair enough) and left players with a creative spark on the bench. Compare that to Brentford going two behind at Villa on Saturday - what a crucial point that could be.

We're in a fight with teams who, while they gone on long winless runs at points this season, have a record of scoring late and earning points out of a vacuum. We need everything to click and fall into place to get three points. This is why I'm resigned to us going down, while we're a superior side technically I just think Luton will better our points tally purely on points gained in the final stages of games. Ditto with Everton.

We, on the other hand, will keep letting games pass us by until we realise there are none left.
 
Statto

Statto

Free Kick Specialist
Colbackstreet Boys said:
One of our most acute problems, and it's possibly the biggest one (amongst a crowded field) in my view but isn't spoken about enough - is our stubborn refusal to put teams under any sort of pressure on opposition teams in the final 15 minutes plus stoppage time.

I went back through our games, and out of the 40 goals we have scored all season, only 4 (10%) have come after the 80 minute mark. It's a quite pathetic record when you think about it. To put that in perspective, Blades have scored 6....

This squad (and coaching staff) seem to have a mentality that if a game isn't won by 77/78 minutes, then it's best to rest legs, limit the damage and move on to the next game. We just have no interest in taking risks and pushing teams in the late stages of games. We've seen it time after time in crucial games where we have been largely competitive and where points are there to be had, the energy and tempo just drops off a cliff if we're not ahead on 80 minutes and its the substitutions compound that. We just let these games pass us by.

Brentford (A), Brighton (A), Bournemouth (A) just a few notable examples. But there are so many more. Against Brentford, despite being on an awful run and conceding late goals, we barely registered a shot after going behind and those 10 minutes of stoppage time were probably the easiest they've had to navigate all season. Bournemouth we barely tested 10 men and Brighton we offered absolutely nothing.

We saw it again last night - after that third went in the intensity died, the heads dropped and Nuno whipped off MGW and Wood (admittedly the former was a precaution, so fair enough) and left players with a creative spark on the bench. Compare that to Brentford going two behind at Villa on Saturday - what a crucial point that could be.

We're in a fight with teams who, while they gone on long winless runs at points this season, have a record of scoring late and earning points out of a vacuum. We need everything to click and fall into place to get three points. This is why I'm resigned to us going down, while we're a superior side technically I just think Luton will better our points tally purely on points gained in the final stages of games. Ditto with Everton.

We, on the other hand, will keep letting games pass us by until we realise there are none left.
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seem to recall a stat the other week that we're the only PL side not to score 90'+
 
B

Berkshire Red

Jack Armstrong
Colbackstreet Boys said:
just think Luton will better our points tally purely on points gained in the final stages of games. Ditto with Everton.

We, on the other hand, will keep letting games pass us by until we realise there are none left.
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The only reason Luton could finish above us will be the points deduction. In football terms we will finish above them.

You are correct though, and we've been doing it for most of the season. Burnley finished the game at the City Ground better than we did. And we never looked like scoring against Everton once they'd taken the lead.
 
M

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
chaospunx said:
Brave thing to say when have we recently put teams like this to the sword I can see them being horrible games neither team is going to want to give us anything I see a point out of city at home more realistic than even 4 points from these 2 matches and im crossing everything to be wrong

Edit just reread your posts and missed your irony first time 🤣
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One of the first times I'm not being ironic.

We'll beat Sheff Utd and Burnley.
 
M

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
Statto said:
seem to recall a stat the other week that we're the only PL side not to score 90+
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Woods trying his hardest with nine in his last ten but he can't do it by himself.
 
Statto

Statto

Free Kick Specialist
MaxiRobriguez said:
Woods trying his hardest with nine in his last ten but he can't do it by himself.
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He still hasn't got any in stoppage time though
very sneaky edit
;)
 
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