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SAM thinks we'll be alright

Jah

Jah

Jack Armstrong
Computer says yes!


http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38663851


I'll take 19th now...

Pos Team P Pts
1 Newcastle United 46 98
2 Brighton & Hove Albion 46 94
3 Leeds United 46 76
4 Sheffield Wednesday 46 76
5 Derby County 46 73
6 Reading 46 73
7 Huddersfield Town 46 71
8 Norwich City 46 70
9 Fulham 46 68
10 Barnsley 46 67
11 Preston North End 46 67
12 Aston Villa 46 64
13 Brentford 46 63
14 Birmingham City 46 61
15 Ipswich Town 46 59
16 Wolves 46 58
17 Cardiff City 46 56
18 QPR 46 56
19 Nottm Forest 46 53
20 Bristol City 46 51
21 Blackburn Rovers 46 49
22 Burton Albion 46 46
23 Wigan Athletic 46 43
24 Rotherham United 46 33
 
Viktor

Viktor

Bee Gees Fan Club member #00001
I never said this?


#Samuel4Mod #MakeLTLFGreatAgain
 
Redemption

Redemption

Agenda Benda
F

Forest Grump

A. Trialist
Yes i think we will be safe but!

I don't think the bottom end will be so high point scoring, i asked myself if 43 points would be enough because that's the very least I expect:

I see it as:

Blackburn. 45 points (predict a stronger finish than us)
Wigan. 43 points (capable of picking up some surprise results)
Forest. 43 points (I would rather have our fixture run-in than those below us)
Bristol c. 39 points (February will probably stall them too much to recover)
Burton. 38 points (Too much do do with April fixtures)
Rotherham. 27 points (it's all over, especially when you consider their March fixtures)

The very least we have to do is:

Rotherham. W. = 3
Villa. L. = 0
Norwich. L. = 0
Fulham. L. = 0
Sheff W. L. = 0
Wigan. D. = 1
Brighton. L. = 0
Brentford. D. = 1
Burton. D. = 1
Derby. D. = 1
Preston. D. = 1
Wolves. L. = 0
Hudders. L. = 0
Blackburn. W. = 3
Cardiff. L. = 0
Reading. L. = 0
QPR. D. = 1
Ipswich. D. = 1

Total. 13 = 43 (i did say the very least) - so I hope for bonus points to take us above 43. Considering how we are I think it is a realistic vision for this season.
 
RedRobbo

RedRobbo

Geoff Thomas
Forest Grump said:
Yes i think we will be safe but!

I don't think the bottom end will be so high point scoring, i asked myself if 43 points would be enough because that's the very least I expect:

I see it as:

Blackburn. 45 points (predict a stronger finish than us)
Wigan. 43 points (capable of picking up some surprise results)
Forest. 43 points (I would rather have our fixture run-in than those below us)
Bristol c. 39 points (February will probably stall them too much to recover)
Burton. 38 points (Too much do do with April fixtures)
Rotherham. 27 points (it's all over, especially when you consider their March fixtures)

The very least we have to do is:

Rotherham. W. = 3
Villa. L. = 0
Norwich. L. = 0
Fulham. L. = 0
Sheff W. L. = 0
Wigan. D. = 1
Brighton. L. = 0
Brentford. D. = 1
Burton. D. = 1
Derby. D. = 1
Preston. D. = 1
Wolves. L. = 0
Hudders. L. = 0
Blackburn. W. = 3
Cardiff. L. = 0
Reading. L. = 0
QPR. D. = 1
Ipswich. D. = 1

Total. 13 = 43 (i did say the very least) - so I hope for bonus points to take us above 43. Considering how we are I think it is a realistic vision for this season.
Click to expand...

+3 points @ Leeds
 
Ravi

Ravi

Upper Decker
Points needed to stay up over the past ten years:

41 42 45 55 41 43 48 47 53 43


Make of that what you will.
 
F

Forest Grump

A. Trialist
To be sure, and I live in hope but I honestly can't see us picking up 20 more points (averaging over a point a game or 5 wins and 5 draws in 19).
 
A

account deleted

Guest
Ravi said:
Points needed to stay up over the past ten years:

41 42 45 55 41 43 48 47 53 43


Make of that what you will.
Click to expand...

What do those points values relate to? Is that points for 22nd place + 1 point?

21st place had the following number of points over the last 10 seasons:

2006/07: 49
2007/08: 53
2008/09: 51
2009/10: 49
2010/11: 48
2011/12: 48
2012/13: 55
2013/14: 44
2014/15: 46
2015/16: 49

A simple mean average of those gives you 49.2, so I'd say 49-50 points will probably mean safety.
 
Last edited:
Ravi

Ravi

Upper Decker
Bangerz said:
What do those points values relate to? Is that points for 22nd place + 1 point?

21st place had the following number of points over the last 10 seasons:

2006/07: 49
2007/08: 53
2008/09: 51
2009/10: 49
2010/11: 48
2011/12: 48
2012/13: 55
2013/14: 44
2014/15: 46
2015/16: 49

A simple mean average of those gives you 49.2, so I'd say 49-50 points will probably mean safety.
Click to expand...

Yes points total to be safe.

50 points is usually enough, but teams have been relegated with more, so 55 is the total if we want to be sure.
 
R

RedTe

Grenville Morris
Wigan seem to have turned a corner and are strengthening. Blackburn are capable of the upset or two. I didn't realise until yesterday how bad Bristol City are. They are the one's who look as though they might get sucked into it along with Burton.
 
H

Harry1982

Grenville Morris
If mountainer had stayed to the end of the month couple of easier games, pillinos back and some easier fixtures? Could he have been our wenger?
 
Heffing Psycho!

Heffing Psycho!

Steve Chettle
The worrying thing is/was our goals conceded, 45 conceded (2nd worse in the league to Rotherham's 60) but the majority of those conceded were with the defence patched together, if we can keep this solid back line fit we'll be heading in the right direction.

Goals scored we sit 6th in the league despite struggling since the new year. Get Britt sharper, get him a bit more service and he'll start scoring again and adding a centre midfielder who can score would also be ideal.
 
F

Forest Grump

A. Trialist
Whether it be 44 points or 55 was dependent on the season, i.e it depends on where points were collected across the table on that particular season, This is why after looking at all the bottom team fixtures and form for Feb/March I think it will be a final low points season (we cannot use an average as a guide). Look at all the fixtures remaining for the six teams, look at theform of each team and we see that all six teams are going to struggle To reach 46 points. Is 43 safe? 43 (worrying and rely on luck), 46 (I will say yes with confidence), 50 (definite).
 
Mr RayReardon

Mr RayReardon

Jack Burkitt
J'Psycho'C66 said:
The worrying thing is/was our goals conceded, 45 conceded (2nd worse in the league to Rotherham's 60) but the majority of those conceded were with the defence patched together, if we can keep this solid back line fit we'll be heading in the right direction.

Goals scored we sit 6th in the league despite struggling since the new year. Get Britt sharper, get him a bit more service and he'll start scoring again and adding a centre midfielder who can score would also be ideal.
Click to expand...
Getting more service is easier said than done, not sure the quality is there. The back four is not that of a club in relegation trouble, the front 6 are.
 
Heffing Psycho!

Heffing Psycho!

Steve Chettle
Mr Redreason said:
Getting more service is easier said than done, not sure the quality is there. The back four is not that of a club in relegation trouble, the front 6 are.
Click to expand...

It is easier said than done but we've shown we can score goals this season, I think we have enough up there to stay up, we've lost Lansbury who scored 6 which is why I think another goal scoring midfielder coming from deep is important, then we need someone who can screen the defence, win the ball back and give it to the forward players. Them two deeper midfield roles are the main ones that need addressing imo.
 
Strummer

Strummer

Socialismo O Muerte!
LTLF Minion
Mr Redreason said:
We finished rock bottom in 1993 with 40 points.....

Shows how uncompetitive the Premier League has become
Click to expand...

More than three times the infamous shaggers total!
 
Mr RayReardon

Mr RayReardon

Jack Burkitt
J'Psycho'C66 said:
It is easier said than done but we've shown we can score goals this season, I think we have enough up there to stay up, we've lost Lansbury who scored 6 which is why I think another goal scoring midfielder coming from deep is important, then we need someone who can screen the defence, win the ball back and give it to the forward players. Them two deeper midfield roles are the main ones that need addressing imo.
Click to expand...
Need to replace Angela and hold on to Benny... Should we lose Osborn then we really are buggered!
 
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