Matchday 29 - Luton Town Football Club vs Nottingham Forest Football Club. Saturday 16th of March KO 3pm (I think)

[Grenville 1898]

And they looked, and they saw the opening jaws of the bottomless pit, its blackness blacker than Owd Beelzebub's coal hole.
The cavernous opening drew them in, inexorably.
The gravtational pull was irresistable, and with eyes widening, and every muscle and sinew striving to avoid it, they felt themselve drawn over the event horizon and they stretched and elongated as the supermassive blackhole they had been dallying with enslaved them, taking them down to their fianl doom... to be continued.

"Cramped in that funnelled hole, they watched the dawn
Open a jagged rim around; a yawn
Of death's jaws, which had all but swallowed them"

Wilfred Owen

 

[Stocky Red]

We have to set up 4-2-3-1. CHO and Elanga down the wings. Wood or Taiwo up top.

And Sangare has to start if we want to have any hope of keeping possession ticking in the middle of the park.

Get after them from the first minute. Move the ball forward quickly and get bodies forward in support.

Agree about Sangare - the flack he got against Brighton was (predictably) ridiculous. First two touches he gets the ball in a tight spot, finds some space and recycles. We lost on Sunday because in the first half we kept giving them the ball, they built confidence and their goal was just a matter of time.

Also agree about Boly - has to start to provide some backbone against their main threat.

Don't however agree about CHO - for me he doesn't do enough defensively (watch how many times he is out of position against Liverpool for instance) and we are going to need to protect against their wing backs. I expect Divok to start again.

 

[Project Zeus]

It will be interesting to review those odds in 7 days time-when Luton have played their game
in hand,faced Forest and we probably know our points deduction.
Those 2/1 odds look tempting to me (fortunately I’m not a gambling man and I wouldn’t bet
against Forest anyway).

Yeah, I'm not sure why they've lengthened myself, but think it's interesting to see a dispassionate appraisal of our chances.

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[tomw94]

Selz
Williams Felipe Boly Murillo
Yates Sangare
Elanga MGW CHO
Awoniyi

I think we need our tallest team possible for this so that means Murillo at LB so we can have Felipe & Boly in the middle.

This is simply a must win, COYR!

 

[Far have we travelled]

Nuno’s body language on the touchline over the last few games, and the way he conducts pre and post match interviews indicates he has thrown in the towel.
I posted when he was appointed that I thought he would not tolerate owner-interference and would walk away if it happened.
Now I see a man with a broken spirit who is waiting for the inevitable sacking.
Forest: ruining reputations for decades.

Maybe, maybe not; maybe you are reading far, far too much into what you've seen or think you've seen- or maybe not.

 

[Far have we travelled]

Selz
Williams Felipe Boly Murillo
Yates Sangare
Elanga MGW CHO
Awoniyi

I think we need our tallest team possible for this so that means Murillo at LB so we can have Felipe & Boly in the middle.

This is simply a must win, COYR!

I think it is a must not lose game. I think we will draw and that the real sustained fightback will start with the Palace game. I believe still that we will stay up, come what may.
We might see Aina back as left back.

 

[Statto]

The odds on our relegation have actually lengthened over the weekend. SkyBet had us at 15/8 on Friday, and it's now 2/1.

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That makes no sense to me.

I think the most likely worst case scenario is that we get docked 6 points, then lose to Luton after Luton beat Bournemouth.

So we end up with 6 fewer points than we have and Luton get 6 more, they are currently 3 behind us, so that will move to us on 18 and them on 27.
Everton now on 25 will then be the team to catch, which we'd be 5 adrift of, and that assumes they lose at the weekend too, and don't have any further deductions.

We need Bournemouth to do us a massive favour midweek and then absolutely not to lose ground to Luton at the weekend. It's a must win really, but absolutely a must not lose.

 

[Captain Sinister]

Comparative stats for the starting XI's last weekend:
Average age of squad: Luton 27; Forest 25
Number of new players starting last weekend: Luton 6; Forest 7.
Average number of seasons with current club: Luton 1.6; Forest 1.6.
So, far from not strengthening their squad on promotion, Luton have recruited only 1 less player than Forest.
However, Forest have paid out multi-millions, whereas Luton have gone for a couple of loans and a number of free transfers.
Forest started Sunday with 5 "home international" players (i.e. players who grew up in the the UK leagues)
Luton on the other hand had 9 of their starting teams of UK heritage.
Maybe that, plus an average age 2 years older than Forest's team gives them an edge when it comes to experience and understanding of the English game.

(N.B.: whilst accurate, the foregoing is complete rubbish: the result at the weekend will be what it will be, and fine margins will make the difference).

 

[Notcher]

Dreading it and just been offered tickets for me and my lad in the Luton end as I work with 2 Luton fans do I don't I lol
On a good note they are shitting it just as much as we are and think there going to lose and can't believe how lucky they were Saturday to get a draw

I wouldn't mate. It's a horrible experience sat in with the opposition fans. You spend the entire time wishing you were sat with your own fans, you can't sing and you can't jump up if we score.

I did this once at Derby when Osborn scored. Luckily it was in the Toyata stand and was full of old duffers. When I jumped up and celebrated, the stewards started coming over and I said don't worry I'm going now anyway. That bit was great and worked out but the experience as a whole wad excruciating.

 

[Alf-engelos Mindminackers]

Absolutely massive game for us this. Huge.

Each week passes by and positives like "looked good going forward" and "scored 2 goals...even though they scored 3" have been proven to be self-kidology, as results have remained elusive for the most part.

So this is an absolute MUST win. It's a cup final. It's a do or die situation.

No experimenting with LB, no trying to be clever and saving pace for the last 20-30 min....field our strongest and best balanced side, and get them fired up and 100% raging for the cause.

This match defines who is fit to be associated with our club and who isn't.

 

[chaospunx]

I wouldn't mate. It's a horrible experience sat in with the opposition fans. You spend the entire time wishing you were sat with your own fans, you can't sing and you can't jump up if we score.

I did this once at Derby when Osborn scored. Luckily it was in the Toyata stand and was full of old duffers. When I jumped up and celebrated, the stewards started coming over and I said don't worry I'm going now anyway. That bit was great and worked out but the experience as a whole wad excruciating.

Yeah ive done it myself too also at derby away luckily a boring 0-0 game but yeah im not going to do it with my son in tow too

 

[Colbackstreet Boys]

I hope I'm wrong but I just don't see how this doesn't end in a pretty convincing Luton win. This group simply doesn't have the resilience or mental stamina to cope with the Kenny, and the strengths of their system and squad are perfectly poised to exploit our biggest weaknesses.

They work harder than us in midfield. Thrive off winning the second ball. They score most of their goals from set pieces. They ramp up the intensity in stoppage time and frequently are rewarded with very late goals.

We struggle to keep the ball under any sort of pressure. Turnover possession very easily. Lack discipline in the tackle in dangerous areas. We don't have any fit players who are brave enough attack the ball aerially. Have conceded the most goals from set pieces in the league. And we don't have the concentration, fitness or shrewdness to manage games in the closing moments.

If Sunday's insipid display is anything to go by, I don't think we will have the answers to these questions by Saturday. If I was a Luton fan, I'd see us as absolutely there for the taking and would be disappointed with anything less than three points.

In fact, I can actually see this getting rather ugly in terms of the score line, they have it in them to put three or four past teams low on confidence e.g. Brighton. An early goal and we will break.

Sorry to be so negative but any positivity I had left evaporated on Sunday. What I saw was 11 individuals who, apart from one or two, have completely checked out and probably mandated their agents to start preparing moves away as soon as the PSR charge was confirmed and it was clear a points deduction was extremely likely. And lets be honest, who can blame them? I'm not sure I'd want to stick around if I worked at an organisation as badly run and toxic as Forest at the moment. Even well paid professional footballers are within their rights to expect a degree of competency and good governance from the clubs hierarchy. They didn't sign up to have hard-fought points wiped off the board by financial mismanagement.

A Luton win on Wednesday, a points deduction on Thursday and a Luton win on Saturday and I think we need to start planning for the Championship because its a long way back from that.

As I say, I really, really hope I'm wrong.

 

[Notcher]

I hope I'm wrong but I just don't see how this doesn't end in a pretty convincing Luton win. This group simply doesn't have the resilience or mental stamina to cope with the Kenny, and the strengths of their system and squad are perfectly poised to exploit our biggest weaknesses.

They work harder than us in midfield. Thrive off winning the second ball. They score most of their goals from set pieces. They ramp up the intensity in stoppage time and frequently are rewarded with very late goals.

We struggle to keep the ball under any sort of pressure. Turnover possession very easily. Lack discipline in the tackle in dangerous areas. We don't have any fit players who are brave enough attack the ball aerially. Have conceded the most goals from set pieces in the league. And we don't have the concentration, fitness or shrewdness to manage games in the closing moments.

If Sunday's insipid display is anything to go by, I don't think we will have the answers to these questions by Saturday. If I was a Luton fan, I'd see us as absolutely there for the taking and would be disappointed with anything less than three points.

In fact, I can actually see this getting rather ugly in terms of the score line, they have it in them to put three or four past teams low on confidence e.g. Brighton. An early goal and we will break.

Sorry to be so negative but any positivity I had left evaporated on Sunday. What I saw was 11 individuals who, apart from one or two, have completely checked out and probably mandated their agents to start preparing moves away as soon as the PSR charge was confirmed and it was clear a points deduction was extremely likely. And lets be honest, who can blame them? I'm not sure I'd want to stick around if I worked at an organisation as badly run and toxic as Forest at the moment. Even well paid professional footballers are within their rights to expect a degree of competency and good governance from the clubs hierarchy. They didn't sign up to have hard-fought points wiped off the board by financial mismanagement.

A Luton win on Wednesday, a points deduction on Thursday and a Luton win on Saturday and I think we need to start planning for the Championship because its a long way back from that.

As I say, I really, really hope I'm wrong.

You could say all of that but I'd also point you at Sheff United beating them at Kenilworth Road recently. A team that are far worse than us and have had very little fight in them all season.

 

[Statto]

Comparative stats for the starting XI's last weekend:
Average age of squad: Luton 27; Forest 25
Number of new players starting last weekend: Luton 6; Forest 7.
Average number of seasons with current club: Luton 1.6; Forest 1.6.
So, far from not strengthening their squad on promotion, Luton have recruited only 1 less player than Forest.
However, Forest have paid out multi-millions, whereas Luton have gone for a couple of loans and a number of free transfers.
Forest started Sunday with 5 "home international" players (i.e. players who grew up in the the UK leagues)
Luton on the other hand had 9 of their starting teams of UK heritage.
Maybe that, plus an average age 2 years older than Forest's team gives them an edge when it comes to experience and understanding of the English game.

(N.B.: whilst accurate, the foregoing is complete rubbish: the result at the weekend will be what it will be, and fine margins will make the difference).

Or we could say

Number of Luton players in the current 23 who were bought after promotion: 14 (meaning 9 were promoted with the club)
Number of Forest players in the 23 this time last year who were bought after promotion: 24 (But our squad then included the likes of Mighten, Johnson, WIlliams below the registration age). The following were listed and promoted with the club - Cook, Worrall, McKenna, Johnson, Yates, Colback, Surridge, Mighten, Cafu, Taylor (I think Cafu and Taylor were deregistered and then Cook certainly was) - total of 10 but really only 7 we could call on
Number of players in our squad who were here during promotion: just Yates.

I think it's clear to see that the turnover argument is more in their favour than ours when it comes to fielding a settled side.

 

[Frank Clark’s Tash]

Selz
Williams Felipe Boly Murillo
Yates Sangare
Elanga MGW CHO
Awoniyi

I think we need our tallest team possible for this so that means Murillo at LB so we can have Felipe & Boly in the middle.

This is simply a must win, COYR!

This really isn't the time to start playing round pegs in square holes. As if the defence don't look like complete strangers as it is!

 

[Cortez the Killer]

And they looked, and they saw the opening jaws of the bottomless pit, its blackness blacker than Owd Beelzebub's coal hole.
The cavernous opening drew them in, inexorably.
The gravtational pull was irresistable, and with eyes widening, and every muscle and sinew striving to avoid it, they felt themselve drawn over the event horizon and they stretched and elongated as the supermassive blackhole they had been dallying with enslaved them, taking them down to their fianl doom... to be continued.

Is that a Peter Drury quote from Sheff Utd's last game?

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[DapperDan]

Selz

Williams
Felipe
Murillo
Toffolo

Yates
Dominguez

Elanga
MGW
CHO

Awoniyi

Get back to what works for us, put players in their best positions, make the quality tell.

 

[Bonfy177]

Only Luton having a game in hand is potentially keeping us out at the moment though. Even if Luton lose or draw (which admittedly is more likely than them winning) what will happen in the next week will probably then define if we start this match in the relegation zone or not.

Certainly if we get docked 3 points we will drop to level with Luton if they lose vs Bournemouth and will then just be above them on GD. 6 points off will take them above us by 3 points but then if we win against them we will be above them again.

Then there's Everton's 2nd case - is this being heard later or are both decisions being announced at the same time? If they get docked 6 points too it will put them onto 19 and below Luton's 21.

There are so many factors and it will probably be clearer what we have to face by the time we play this.

However all of the clarity points to us absolutely needing to win this and the return fixtures vs Everton, Burnley and Sheff Utd, which only got us 5 points in the early season.

At the moment we have 24 points from 28 which is a bit below the 1 per game which is usually the figure however to finish above Luton's current rate will probably need a bit less. If we work to 35, then that's another 11 points, which is 3 wins and 2 draws. It's achievable but those 4 must win. If we get points docked then that increases the number of wins we need...

 

[Alf-engelos Mindminackers]

I hope I'm wrong but I just don't see how this doesn't end in a pretty convincing Luton win. This group simply doesn't have the resilience or mental stamina to cope with the Kenny, and the strengths of their system and squad are perfectly poised to exploit our biggest weaknesses.

They work harder than us in midfield. Thrive off winning the second ball. They score most of their goals from set pieces. They ramp up the intensity in stoppage time and frequently are rewarded with very late goals.

We struggle to keep the ball under any sort of pressure. Turnover possession very easily. Lack discipline in the tackle in dangerous areas. We don't have any fit players who are brave enough attack the ball aerially. Have conceded the most goals from set pieces in the league. And we don't have the concentration, fitness or shrewdness to manage games in the closing moments.

If Sunday's insipid display is anything to go by, I don't think we will have the answers to these questions by Saturday. If I was a Luton fan, I'd see us as absolutely there for the taking and would be disappointed with anything less than three points.

In fact, I can actually see this getting rather ugly in terms of the score line, they have it in them to put three or four past teams low on confidence e.g. Brighton. An early goal and we will break.

Sorry to be so negative but any positivity I had left evaporated on Sunday. What I saw was 11 individuals who, apart from one or two, have completely checked out and probably mandated their agents to start preparing moves away as soon as the PSR charge was confirmed and it was clear a points deduction was extremely likely. And lets be honest, who can blame them? I'm not sure I'd want to stick around if I worked at an organisation as badly run and toxic as Forest at the moment. Even well paid professional footballers are within their rights to expect a degree of competency and good governance from the clubs hierarchy. They didn't sign up to have hard-fought points wiped off the board by financial mismanagement.

A Luton win on Wednesday, a points deduction on Thursday and a Luton win on Saturday and I think we need to start planning for the Championship because its a long way back from that.

As I say, I really, really hope I'm wrong.

I'm hoping that we get some favorable ref decisions which see us pox the game!

 

[PlayedOnGrass]

Good to see nobody has thrown the towel in yet despite us not being in the relegation zone once this season

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Not throwing the towel in - just concerned.
I have been 100% positive and right behind the the team, the manager and the ownership all season - even falling out with people on here because of my 'blind faith'
Yesterday was the first time that I questioned my 'faith' - I was just so disappointed with that team selection and performance.
We should have more than enough - but before yesterday it was we will have more than enough

 

[Chappers85]

These two games with Luton are turning out to be season defining. The first, in which we squandered a 2 goal lead due to defensive ineptitude, was the catalyst that caused the downward spiral that has been this season. Three men who are no longer at the club - Aurier, Worrall and of course Cooper (as much as I love the man) - were responsible that afternoon. Luton were truly dreadful (and I mean utterly, horrendously dreadful), yet we let them leave The City Ground with a point. We have done nothing more than stumble, stutter or collapse since. Luton on the other hand, have found belief and have fought for every game, for every point and have given themselves a realistic chance of staying up.

This second is as must-win as it gets without it getting into mathematical certainties. We don't necessarily stay up if we do win, but we could potentially be six points ahead of them (if they lose at Bournemouth). Even with a points deduction (as long as it's no more than 6), I fancy us to outscore them over the final 9 games. Lose, or even draw (especially if they beat Bournemouth) and then a points deduction on top of that...it's difficult to see us surviving. Not impossible but we'd have to do it the hard way (like last season), but I think we'd probably implode if we lose as I think it'd be too much psychologically for these players.

However, I think we'll win. We have to. And if we don't, do we deserve to stay up? The players have got to put that victim mentality aside; decisions and luck will go against us. We have to find a way to win in spite of that. So, sod it! It's blind faith time. We'll win 4-0 (Elanga 2, Wood, Awoniyi). Hatters Battered! Come on you Reds!

 

[trentside69]

That makes no sense to me.

I think the most likely worst case scenario is that we get docked 6 points, then lose to Luton after Luton beat Bournemouth.

So we end up with 6 fewer points than we have and Luton get 6 more, they are currently 3 behind us, so that will move to us on 18 and them on 27.
Everton now on 25 will then be the team to catch, which we'd be 5 adrift of, and that assumes they lose at the weekend too, and don't have any further deductions.

We need Bournemouth to do us a massive favour midweek and then absolutely not to lose ground to Luton at the weekend. It's a must win really, but absolutely a must not lose.

The bookies know we will be relegation favourites when the points deduction happens so that's why the odds have got longer because they want the punters to bet on a different team before forest are made relegation favourites

 

[Mr. Blonde]

Not sure why people are so afraid of Luton's alleged staunch team spirit - they're 18th for a reason and their form is terrible. For all their gusto it rarely ever translates into wins.

The importance of the game adds an extra element and yes there will be a dodgy refereeing decision to our detriment, but besides those things we have the better squad, no reason we shouldn't expect to go there and draw at the absolute least

 

[SouthManchesterTree]

A convincing defeat and a load of excuses is unfortunately the most likely scenario here

Prove me wrong Forest

 

[REDDERS78]

Not sure why people are so afraid of Luton's alleged staunch team spirit - they're 18th for a reason and their form is terrible. For all their gusto it rarely ever translates into wins.

The importance of the game adds an extra element and yes there will be a dodgy refereeing decision to our detriment, but besides those things we have the better squad, no reason we shouldn't expect to go there and draw at the absolute least

All makes sense.

Until you realise they are playing us.