Brentford's Moneyball Article

[Collymore!]

Brentford's Moneyball Way To Beat Football Teams With Huge Budgets

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2718752

Decent read for your lunch hour if you're interested.

Once quote semi-relevant to NFFC was: "In 2015, Mark Warburton was not offered a new contract as manager after Brentford came fifth. The club believed the team had been lucky, that their performances had not merited such impressive results. Warburton was also less enamoured with analytics than other senior figures."

I think this article highlights what many Forest fans have been saying/wanting for years. Interesting notes about players being financial assets, buy on the rise and not the decline etc.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

Brentford's Moneyball Way To Beat Football Teams With Huge Budgets

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2718752

Decent read for your lunch hour if you're interested.

Once quote semi-relevant to NFFC was: "In 2015, Mark Warburton was not offered a new contract as manager after Brentford came fifth. The club believed the team had been lucky, that their performances had not merited such impressive results. Warburton was also less enamoured with analytics than other senior figures."

I think this article highlights what many Forest fans have been saying/wanting for years. Interesting notes about players being financial assets, buy on the rise and not the decline etc.

Interesting read. Couple of highlights:

1) 45% of players in youth teams born between Sept-Nov is like teachers trying to have children born in the same time frame. If you think about it, when football scouts go to watch youngsters in school years then an 8 year old born in September will be roughly 10% more developed than a child in May.

2) Buying Scandinavian players because they're more professional.

 

[Matt]

Interesting read. Couple of highlights:

1) 45% of players in youth teams born between Sept-Nov is like teachers trying to have children born in the same time frame. If you think about it, when football scouts go to watch youngsters in school years then an 8 year old born in September will be roughly 10% more developed than a child in May.

2) Buying Scandinavian players because they're more professional.

1) The gap is usually levelled out by 13/14, so makes sense it'll take those younger players a few extra years to develop

2) Tell that to Bendtner

 

[Statto]

1) 45% of players in youth teams born between Sept-Nov is like teachers trying to have children born in the same time frame. If you think about it, when football scouts go to watch youngsters in school years then an 8 year old born in September will be roughly 10% more developed than a child in May.

Makes a big assumption that all kids will be at an equal stage of development at the same age. Obviously this assumption is false, and the gap narrows as you get older anyway. A kid born in the first few months of the school year is almost a year older than one born in the last but them being older doesn't make them more physically strong, larger, or more intelligent.

When they're adults it won't matter anyway and more important factors like the talent they have come into play then, so why not just focus on that?

 

[Senior Flange Technician]

Always pissed me off that some people do their exams nearly a year later than I did.

 

[MaxiRobriguez]

Makes a big assumption that all kids will be at an equal stage of development at the same age. Obviously this assumption is false, and the gap narrows as you get older anyway. A kid born in the first few months of the school year is almost a year older than one born in the last but them being older doesn't make them more physically strong, larger, or more intelligent.

No, but it does make it more likely.

When they're adults it won't matter anyway and more important factors like the talent they have come into play then, so why not just focus on that?

That's what Brentford are doing. They're making the assertion that when other clubs go and look at 7 or 8 year olds kicking a ball around at school, the older ones will look better because they have sometimes up to a years worth of development on their younger peers. So they will be strong, faster and more intelligent. Looks like Brentford are deliberately picking up the younger ones who may not be far off their seniors of a few months precisely because they still have the scope to develop.

 

[SLM92NF]

Find it amazing that the barometer for success is somehow invalid.

How you can be "lucky" over 46 games is beyond me. Even if you are a statistician, you can't argue with that.