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The Relegation Dogfight 23/24

Robertson

Robertson

Geoff Thomas
Without points deductions:

3 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats = 36 points. Usually enough? Luton would need 4 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats to match this. Not impossible but a challenge for them I'd say.

Thinking positively I'd certainly hope we would lose fewer than seven games out of the next thirteen.
 
Captain Sinister

Captain Sinister

Senior doom Monger
Red Dog in a Forest said:
A six points deduction puts us one point behind Everton, although they have a game in hand. Assuming Everton challenge successfully, but then get another reduction, we will likely be around the same points tally.

The same reduction sees us two points behind Luton, who will likely lose their game in hand vs Liverpool.

I’m feeling positive, especially with the manner in which we beat West Ham. It’s all to play for.
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I think we
thehockleyhustler said:
I don't get that mentally.

As others have pointed out, -6 puts us 2 points behind Luton with around 1/3 of the season still to play. We have no idea what is happening with Everton so that could go either way too.

It will be tough, but to suggest you "can't see anyway we can avoid the drop" is mind boggling given what we just witnessed at the weekend.

Sent from my SM-G991B using Tapatalk
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At the weekend we beat a West Ham side that is low on form, losing confidence in David Moyes, and were missing a couple of really important players.
Villa may be on a bit of a sticky run at home, but they are still a different proposition than West Ham.
After that we have a difficult run of games.
I think we will secure enough points to stay up before we get the points deduction.
The points deduction is in the lap of the gods: some people reckon we will escape with a fine, others with a 10 point deduction.
If it is the 10 points I think we will struggle to survive.
6 is still white knuckle territory.
And I like to proven wrong when I make a prediction - it keeps me grounded :)
 
PlayedOnGrass

PlayedOnGrass

First Team Squad
MASE said:
Think the inference was 10 points would be terminal, with the run in, its difficult to argue with. 6 points gives us a fighting chance, particularly given we've at last found a decent attacking combination using both full backs.

I think any negativity comes with supporting Forest for so many years, even given the dominance of Saturdays performance we still couldnt turn it in to goals without the red card. Very few, if any teams going forward will present with such impotence as West Ham. Its gonna be tough playing catch up, even with luton.
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Yes West Ham were poor on saturday - but how about giving credit to our performance.
Defensively we were pretty solid - cut out virtually all of the mistakes, the central defenders completely nullified Antonio, Bowen on the verge of the England squad - got nothing out of Tavares and Domingues & Danilo completely dominated 2 England internationals in the midfield.
Up front we created a hatful of chances, yes we missed some - but their GK was their best player.
 
Trents

Trents

John Robertson
gregor said:
Without points deductions:

3 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats = 36 points. Usually enough? Luton would need 4 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats to match this. Not impossible but a challenge for them I'd say.

Thinking positively I'd certainly hope we would lose fewer than seven games out of the next thirteen.
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I don't see either Sheff Utd or Burnley getting to 30 points. They could well be gone by the time we visit them. It would take a tremendous effort from either to survive now.

It'll come down to the points deduction, the winnable home games v Palace, Wolves and Fulham and avoiding defeat at Luton and Everton.
 
C

Cloughie1975

John Robertson
Trents said:
I don't see either Sheff Utd or Burnley getting to 30 points. They could well be gone by the time we visit them. It would take a tremendous effort from either to survive now.

It'll come down to the points deduction, the winnable home games v Palace, Wolves and Fulham and avoiding defeat at Luton and Everton.
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It would also help if we were to win a game (or two) against the odds in our remaining ’really
difficult on paper’ fixtures-Villa,Liverpool,Brighton,Tottenham and Manchester City.
 
PlayedOnGrass

PlayedOnGrass

First Team Squad
MaxiRobriguez said:
6 points deduction will put it on a coin flip in my opinion. If it's 10 we're down, if it's 3 we're fine.

We're on to finish on 36 points current trajectory, hopefully Nuno can improve the PPG but got a tricky set of fixtures coming up to navigate so it will put a lot of pressure in final few games of season, but we've got some fixtures to take points in to push past 36 points. The big one of the lot is Luton away, win that and I think we'll probably be OK, lose it and we're on a knife-edge.
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Where does this 36 points come from?
On current form since NES came in, we are currently averaging 1.25 points per (10 from 8 including, 5 matches against the current top 8) - and that is with half a team missing and some dodgy decisions going against us.
13 matches left @ 1.25 per match gives us 16 points.
That gives us a total of 40.
I think that is more than achievable.
A 6 point deduction (which we won't get) would leave on 34 points - Luton will need to average a point point a game to achieve that, which I don't think is achievable.
Us winning @ Luton would be massive.
 
Strummer

Strummer

Socialismo O Muerte!
LTLF Minion
M

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
PlayedOnGrass said:
Where does this 36 points come from?
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I just simply included all our form across season.

I also said if Nuno can improve our PPG (which as you point out, currently he has) then we'll achieve more than 36 points. Every point above that line dramatically increases the chances of us staying up. If we get to 40 points I think we're safe in 95% of eventualities.
 
alabamared

alabamared

Stuart Pearce
SouthManchesterTree said:
2 things in particular count against us - the likely points deduction and we’ve played all of our easiest home games (winning virtually none of them).

We also rely heavily on a couple of players, although other teams do too
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The next four games are tough but there are winnable games after that both home and away.
 
MASE

MASE

Up-Front
PlayedOnGrass said:
Yes West Ham were poor on saturday - but how about giving credit to our performance.
Defensively we were pretty solid - cut out virtually all of the mistakes, the central defenders completely nullified Antonio, Bowen on the verge of the England squad - got nothing out of Tavares and Domingues & Danilo completely dominated 2 England internationals in the midfield.
Up front we created a hatful of chances, yes we missed some - but their GK was their best player.
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Cracking performance, no doubt about that. Contextually though, Id have preferred to see that much dominance turn into goals, particularly 11v11, before suggesting that performance puts other teams away in this league and we can feel safe about giving 6-10 points away.
 
Bob Fossil

Bob Fossil

Nottingham's dirty secret
As of now- If Everton get 4 points back from the appeal & then we both get deducted 6 points we wouldn't even be in the relegation zone and still only 2 points behind Luton.

With Everton getting 0 back and then us both getting a 10 points deduction (unlikely) then we still wouldn't be in the relegation zone, would be 5 clear of Everton & just need to finish above them, Burnley & the blunts- who are both wank.

We've got our AFCON players coming back, have near enough a full squad to choose from & are starting to look like a very good team.

What the f*** is all this talk of not being able to see us surviving? Am I missing something?
 
Strummer

Strummer

Socialismo O Muerte!
LTLF Minion
Bob Fossil said:
As of now- If Everton get 4 points back from the appeal & then we both get deducted 6 points we wouldn't even be in the relegation zone and still only 2 points behind Luton.

With Everton getting 0 back and then us both getting a 10 points deduction (unlikely) then we still wouldn't be in the relegation zone, would be 5 clear of Everton & just need to finish above them, Burnley & the blunts- who are both wank.

We've got our AFCON players coming back, have near enough a full squad to choose from & are starting to look like a very good team.

What the f*** is all this talk of not being able to see us surviving? Am I missing something?
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Because it’s more likely „grand old“ Everton get all their points back and a five point bonus as an apology, and Forest get a ten-point deduction for their temerity, and another five points deduction for their criticism of match officials.
 
Bonfy177

Bonfy177

LTLF MORON
Bob Fossil said:
As of now- If Everton get 4 points back from the appeal & then we both get deducted 6 points we wouldn't even be in the relegation zone and still only 2 points behind Luton.

With Everton getting 0 back and then us both getting a 10 points deduction (unlikely) then we still wouldn't be in the relegation zone, would be 5 clear of Everton & just need to finish above them, Burnley & the blunts- who are both wank.
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Bonfy177

Bonfy177

LTLF MORON
Bob Fossil said:
Worst thing is I'm sat by the pool on the ale trying to relax and I've just given myself a headache Bonfy🤣.

Positivity lads 💪🏻
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🤣More supping less figuring Bob😉 🍺.
 
Captain Sinister

Captain Sinister

Senior doom Monger
MaxiRobriguez said:
I just simply included all our form across season.

I also said if Nuno can improve our PPG (which as you point out, currently he has) then we'll achieve more than 36 points. Every point above that line dramatically increases the chances of us staying up. If we get to 40 points I think we're safe in 95% of eventualities.
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But 40-10=30, and at 30 we are doomed.
 
M

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
Captain Sinister said:
But 40-10=30, and at 30 we are doomed.
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10 point deduction is only one scenario, and even if that transpires it's like Everton would likely be punished again and their original punishment upheld. We might even finish above Luton.

I think a 10 point deduction makes it likely we will be relegated, but not guaranteed.
 
Bonfy177

Bonfy177

LTLF MORON
Redemption

Redemption

One less gobshite...
The only snag with then Everton thing, is that they get a reduction on appeal for the first breach, then they successfully appeal any 2nd breach punishment on grounds on double jeopardy.

This could see Forest with a higher penalty deduction than Everton. Not probable, imho, but not impossible either.
 
Robertson

Robertson

Geoff Thomas
Redemption said:
The only snag with then Everton thing, is that they get a reduction on appeal for the first breach, then they successfully appeal any 2nd breach punishment on grounds on double jeopardy.

This could see Forest with a higher penalty deduction than Everton. Not probable, imho, but not impossible either.
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Well in that case at least we’d effectively be immune from FFP next season. Spend spend spend!!!
 
HBB

HBB

Jack Burkitt
Well Roy's gone (not died!!) but bound to be a bit chaotic at Palace which can only be a good thing
 
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