The Big Finance, Money and Economics thread

Captain Sinister

Senior doom Monger
This is not always the case.

There are certain schemes where you can take benefits at 50 (one example is serving Her Majesty).
I didn't know that, or rather, I had forgotten about it!
Every day is a school day.
However, I don't think that 50 applies to many professions - armed forces is one, police service another, but for most occupations 55 or later is the rule (barring early retirement for ill-health).
Legislation is set to change in 2028, so that the earliest date for most professions/occupations is rising to 57.
 

Strummer

Orel Mangala Fan Club
I didn't know that, or rather, I had forgotten about it!
Every day is a school day.
However, I don't think that 50 applies to many professions - armed forces is one, police service another, but for most occupations 55 or later is the rule (barring early retirement for ill-health).
Legislation is set to change in 2028, so that the earliest date for most professions/occupations is rising to 57.
Well, yeah; HM Armed Forces One you can get at 50 (because hey, you’re actually alive still, which is also a benefit).
 

Phooey

Jack Armstrong
50? Try 40, if you join at 18 or younger. Those of us who didn't jump in straight away had to wait a little longer but 42 isn't too bad. You get a jump at 55 though which is where it aligns to some other Government workers.
 

Project Zeus

Stuart Pearce
Another month, another record breaking growth in house price.

Average house price in the UK is now £283,000, with growth of £32,000 in the last year alone.

Still waiting for that bubble to pop

Sent from my SM-G990B using Tapatalk
 

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
Another month, another record breaking growth in house price.

Average house price in the UK is now £283,000, with growth of £32,000 in the last year alone.

Still waiting for that bubble to pop

Sent from my SM-G990B using Tapatalk
That's based on completions, which lag data provided by the likes of Rightmove by about 3 months or so.

It's also people trying to get in before interest rates go up.

Next month or two tops out, and multi-year pull back there after would be my guess. Lots of 2 year fixed rate deals would have been bought during the post-pandemic boom which will be coming up for remortgage in the next six months, and every chance central bank interest rates are 2-3% by then if not more, which would mean mortgage rates of 4-5%. That'll be unaffordable for a lot of people who stretched themselves to afford the initial purchase.

Don't believe me? Just look at the data. House prices bottomed out between 1993 and 1996 in terms of price-earnings ratio after a long period of high interest rates. Interest rates in 1993 were 6%, down from 14% just years prior, and by 1996 they'd fallen to 4%, the lowest rate in half a century. You'd then got 12 years of house price speculation, and then after that unwound 0% interest rates.

If inflation doesn't get tamed then central bank will act, and they will push rates high. It'll absolutely kill the housing market. People won't be able to afford their homes, investors won't see any opportunity in BTL, liquidity will cease. In that scenario prices probably won't crash, but they'll ebb for a bit and then stabilise (rather than rise again) as people still retain some fear of high interest rates.
 

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
Interest Rates up to 1.75%.

What's the betting my bank quickly moves to stick that on my Mortgage - but not my savings account?
If you've got a variable mortgage chances they lifted the rates on it within the last couple of weeks as rate rise today was all but guaranteed. Mine went up last week.

I don't have any savings so that's not a problem. :lol:
 

Tiff

Matchday Squad
So a recession as long as the financial crises and as deep as the 90s
And 13% inflation

But don’t worry folks , the tories know what they are doing with the economy. If I was Sunak I would be breathing a sigh of relief , whoever is inheriting this cluster fuck is doomed from the start.

I always thought Boris was the worst prime minister for the worst time
Truss will knock him out the park, she is going to be so far out of her depth.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

congo_red

Ale ape.
If you've got a variable mortgage chances they lifted the rates on it within the last couple of weeks as rate rise today was all but guaranteed. Mine went up last week.

I don't have any savings so that's not a problem. :lol:
I actually put it on a 5 year fixed rate which has 4years and 2 months left to run at 1.74%, at which point I'll be fully paid off, so I've lost out for 10 months but will be slightly ahead now.

Was more just a flippant comment on how banks pass on changes to the interest rate only when it's to thier benefit.
 

congo_red

Ale ape.
So a recession as long as the financial crises and as deep as the 90s
And 13% inflation

But don’t worry folks , the tories know what they are doing with the economy. If I was Sunak I would be breathing a sigh of relief , whoever is inheriting this cluster fuck is doomed from the start.

I always thought Boris was the worst prime minister for the worst time
Truss will knock him out the park, she is going to be so far out of her depth.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Watch Truss offer Sunak the Chancellor's job now...
 

JLingz Dancing Feet

Formerly Djed the Red
Out of interest (pardon the pun) should we hit a recession in the next couple of year, how will that effect interest rates?

I have two years left on the fixed mortgage, would be nice to know if I can going to get completely shafted in a couple of years time.
 

eyupmeduck

First Team Squad
Out of interest (pardon the pun) should we hit a recession in the next couple of year, how will that effect interest rates?

I have two years left on the fixed mortgage, would be nice to know if I can going to get completely shafted in a couple of years time.
It depends on who you listen to, in my opinion the rise in interest rates to combat inflation won't yield the impact it intends to because its based on flawed models and even then it strays from them but thats my opinion.

OECD have projected base rate for the UK to be 2.62% by q4 2023 (EU 2.1%) but in all honesty it could be more or less, most projections I'm seeing are just over 2% but they will be revised upwards im sure because of second round inflation impacts that we've not seen yet like the energy bills increasing again and possibly wages too. Shroders has it as a peak of of 2.62 and projects by 2024 through 2025 it will fall back to around 2%.

Essentially I'm in a similar boat to you, my fixed rate runs off in early 2024 so more joy to come for me!
 

Strummer

Orel Mangala Fan Club
It depends on who you listen to, in my opinion the rise in interest rates to combat inflation won't yield the impact it intends to because its based on flawed models and even then it strays from them but thats my opinion.
To be honest, I think you’ve pretty much got it spot on there.

Interest rate rises are a blunt instrument to remove disposable income so that it can’t contribute to an inflatory spiral.

I am with Thomas Piketty on this topic (if you haven’t already done so kids, go read Capital in the 21st Century, it will open your eyes).
 

Fitzcarraldo

Ian Storey-Moore
Out of interest (pardon the pun) should we hit a recession in the next couple of year, how will that effect interest rates?

I have two years left on the fixed mortgage, would be nice to know if I can going to get completely shafted in a couple of years time.
BoE predicting one in the next couple of months. Stagflation bites hard and if it lasts as long as they forecast, expect the run-off to lead to social and civic unrest as it takes the lower-end much longer to recover from that kind of hit.

Time to dust-off the balaclava
 

Fitzcarraldo

Ian Storey-Moore
To be honest, I think you’ve pretty much got it spot on there.

Interest rate rises are a blunt instrument to remove disposable income so that it can’t contribute to an inflatory spiral.

I am with Thomas Piketty on this topic (if you haven’t already done so kids, go read Capital in the 21st Century, it will open your eyes).
Well researched if a little dense and idealistic - plenty of mental masturbation.
 

MaxiRobriguez

Bob McKinlay
Out of interest (pardon the pun) should we hit a recession in the next couple of year, how will that effect interest rates?

I have two years left on the fixed mortgage, would be nice to know if I can going to get completely shafted in a couple of years time.

Recessions usually result in lowering of interest rates (to try and stimulate growth)
Inflation usually results in increasing of interest rates (to encourage people to save money rather than spend it).

Inflation is currently being driven almost solely by Russia reacting to our sanctions by shutting off gas supplies. Raising interest rates is going to have very little impact on tempering inflation because people are already stopping buying things (you can see it in PMI reports) and Russia could still go further.

BoE is currently forecasting 13% inflation which may persist into 2023 after which it'll drop to 2% levels. If they're right you might just ride out that really choppy period and land on your feet with a remortage period when inflation (and interest rates) are falling/have already fallen.

To be honest if you've got 2 years in your fix probably best not to even pay any attention. Will almost certainly cost you more to come out of that to lock in than you'd save, and besides you're late now anyway, long term rates wont be cheap anymore.

FWIW I have a remortgage due in July next year. JOY.
 

JohhnyM

A. Trialist
Out of interest (pardon the pun) should we hit a recession in the next couple of year, how will that effect interest rates?

I have two years left on the fixed mortgage, would be nice to know if I can going to get completely shafted in a couple of years time.
Assuming your current deal was done in the last 3-7 years, then expect to be paying 20-40% more on whatever new deal you get in 2 years, as rates won’t get back to previous lows by then.
 

JLingz Dancing Feet

Formerly Djed the Red
This is my third year in to a 5 year fix this August, managed to get it at 2.18% (I think) at the time.

If it goes up by 20%, to be honest I already overpay by 20% so it won't make much of a difference for me on a month to month basis. But thanks for the advice all, hoping I land on it at about the right time.
 
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