Slow starters

[Raymondo Ponte']

We have an entrenched predictable routine with the first 20% of the campaign of not attaining enough points on the board.

I fear this will not change with Billyboys usual cautious approach.

In the last five seasons, nine out of ten clubs that gained automatic promotion flew out of the blocks.

Will it change? Can it change? Does a one winged Albatross fly in a circle?

 

[GOBIAS]

I think it is a Forest thing. Like not scoring from corners. Even when we got promoted under Frank Clark we started slow. Clough's teams traditionally started slow. It would be good to start well though.

 

[The Red Mill]

Can't see too many wins coming from the first month of the season. I would rather the season builds to a climax.

The last time we had a near perfect start it all went pear shaped after Christmas, anyway. And we ended up losing to yeovil.

 

[DapperDan]

Should get 12 points from the September games. If we don't completely f*** up August then we should be good.

 

[Captain Sinister]

Trouble with the slow start mentality is that pretty soon it is about a play-off place rather than an automatic promotion slot.
I know Reading did it from a slow start but they were one of the exceptions.
If we were to be serious about avoiding the lottery of the play-offs we should go for it from day 1.

 

[FBS]

Billy has said his teams do make a slow start to the season. Its not, necessarily, a bad thing as it means we are trying new formations, also playing new teams.
But by 10 games in we should be hitting our stride a bit.

 

[Captain Sinister]

Billy has said his teams do make a slow start to the season. Its not, necessarily, a bad thing as it means we are trying new formations, also playing new teams.
But by 10 games in we should be hitting our stride a bit.

By then we could be 20 points off the pace...

 

[puds1970]

We have an entrenched predictable routine with the first 20% of the campaign of not attaining enough points on the board.

I fear this will not change with Billyboys usual cautious approach.

In the last five seasons, nine out of ten clubs that gained automatic promotion flew out of the blocks.

Will it change? Can it change? Does a one winged Albatross fly in a circle?

We hear again and again from fans that there is still loads of time to bring players in and to stop moaning and have more patience. But we are notoriously slow at tying down players in critical areas that need urgent attention. Case in point years to plug the left back position.
Of course none of us know just how much work is being done in the background or how hard certain people are working. Also of course we can't sign certain players we may be interested in due to the transfer window.
We had an excuse last season but not this season. But if I was a betting man it will be left until the last minute again.
As for Billy having a cautious approach, I'm not so sure.

 

[Raymondo Ponte']

Does Billy have any other way but "cautious" though Puds? I've very rarely witnessed a Forest side take a team apart under his entire time here. He loves the solid one nils and when it comes off like our cracking unbeaten home run under his tenure last time, we are all happy. It wont win us automatic promotion imo, and as for play-offs our record is awful.

There can be no excuses this time.

 

[tropix]

Really tough opening fixtures. I'd be chuffed if we were 7th/8th/9th after 6 games

 

[Raymondo Ponte']

Really tough opening fixtures. I'd be chuffed if we were 7th/8th/9th after 6 games

Agreed, and an even tougher run-in. We need to be "ON IT".

 

[Ravi]

We do need to hit the ground running if we are to really challenge this season.

Billy does prefer a cautious approach, but Hull were hardly Brazil last season and they made it. QPR were also a 1-0 team when they went up recently.

 

[Raymondo Ponte']

We do need to hit the ground running if we are to really challenge this season.

Billy does prefer a cautious approach, but Hull were hardly Brazil last season and they made it. QPR were also a 1-0 team when they went up recently.

This is the hope Ravi, we can definitely solid out a promotion campaign with some really good signings before the big kick-off. We await.

 

[puds1970]

Does Billy have any other way but "cautious" though Puds? I've very rarely witnessed a Forest side take a team apart under his entire time here. He loves the solid one nils and when it comes off like our cracking unbeaten home run under his tenure last time, we are all happy. It wont win us automatic promotion imo, and as for play-offs our record is awful.

There can be no excuses this time.

And whose team in recent years have you seen take opposition apart Ray?. The odd good performance from SOD team but very few other examples for me.
It's alright giving a manager an ultimatum. But let's not forget what the alternative is and what position we were in under so called better alternatives.

 

[Raymondo Ponte']

And whose team in recent years have you seen take opposition apart Ray?. The odd good performance from SOD team but very few other examples for me.
It's alright giving a manager an ultimatum. But let's not forget what the alternative is and what position we were in under so called better alternatives.

Billy is the best manager we've had for years, it doesn't actually say alot for us or him because we've had some shite here. We were flirting with relegation last season before Billy managed a mini revival although followed quickly by a crap run-in.

As for watching free flowing football and winning by decent margins, I gave up on that a long time ago. We have the odd exception but it's mostly bland to watch.

 

[puds1970]

Billy is the best manager we've had for years, it doesn't actually say alot for us or him because we've had some shite here. We were flirting with relegation last season before Billy managed a mini revival although followed quickly by a crap run-in.

As for watching free flowing football and winning by decent margins, I gave up on that a long time ago. We have the odd exception but it's mostly bland to watch.

So best of a bad bunch then?.

 

[GOBIAS]

So best of a bad bunch then?.

I do think Davies gets the balance right between playing football and grinding out results.

 

[puds1970]

I do think Davies gets the balance right between playing football and grinding out results.

So do I.
Maybe one day he will get chance to prove at an higher level that he can cut it. Rather than the 10 Derby games in their record breaking shit season. Or taking over clubs that are either mediocre or going through a shit patch.
Who knows?.

 

[virgo]

We have an entrenched predictable routine with the first 20% of the campaign of not attaining enough points on the board.

I fear this will not change with Billyboys usual cautious approach.

In the last five seasons, nine out of ten clubs that gained automatic promotion flew out of the blocks.

Will it change? Can it change? Does a one winged Albatross fly in a circle?

Lets analyse the figures.
The following are all after 10 games (approx. 20%), showing the positions of the 3 promoted teams, and the final position of Forest.

2012/13

1. Cardiff (auto)
4. Crystal Palace (Play Off)
10. Hull (auto).
12. Forest (finished 8th).

2011/12

1.Southampton (auto)
4. West Ham (P/O)
15. Reading (auto)
21 Forest (19th)

2010/2011

1. QPR (auto)
3. Norwich (auto)
8. Swansea (P/O)
11. Forest (6th)

2009/2010
1. Newcastle (auto)
2. WBA (auto)
7. Blackpool (P/O)
14 Forest (3rd)

2008/2009

1. Birmingham (auto)
2. Wolves (auto)
9. Burnley (P/O)
24 Forest (19)

So, if history is anything to go by, if we are in the top 10 after 10 games we don't need to all slit our wrists, as both Hull and Reading have both come from these positions (or lower) to gain Automatic promotion, and Swansea, Blackpool and Burnley have come from 8th, 7th and 9th respectively to win via the play-offs.

So, whilst a flying start would of course be good, as long as we make a steady start I don't see a need to unduly panic.

 

[Captain Sinister]

Lets analyse the figures.
The following are all after 10 games (approx. 20%), showing the positions of the 3 promoted teams, and the final position of Forest.

2012/13

1. Cardiff (auto)
4. Crystal Palace (Play Off)
10. Hull (auto).
12. Forest (finished 8th).

2011/12

1.Southampton (auto)
4. West Ham (P/O)
15. Reading (auto)
21 Forest (19th)

2010/2011

1. QPR (auto)
3. Norwich (auto)
8. Swansea (P/O)
11. Forest (6th)

2009/2010
1. Newcastle (auto)
2. WBA (auto)
7. Blackpool (P/O)
14 Forest (3rd)

2008/2009

1. Birmingham (auto)
2. Wolves (auto)
9. Burnley (P/O)
24 Forest (19)

So, if history is anything to go by, if we are in the top 10 after 10 games we don't need to all slit our wrists, as both Hull and Reading have both come from these positions (or lower) to gain Automatic promotion, and Swansea, Blackpool and Burnley have come from 8th, 7th and 9th respectively to win via the play-offs.

So, whilst a flying start would of course be good, as long as we make a steady start I don't see a need to unduly panic.

Nice to see a bit of analysis to back an opinion - good on you mate.
My own conclusion remains the same as before though - if you want to have a better than even chance of automatic promotion you have to be out of the blocks pretty quickly.

 

[virgo]

Nice to see a bit of analysis to back an opinion - good on you mate.
My own conclusion remains the same as before though - if you want to have a better than even chance of automatic promotion you have to be out of the blocks pretty quickly.

I'm only trying to convince myself that if we get the "traditional" slow start, all can still come good in the end.

However, if we also look at the records for the previous 2 seasons to my original list (when we were in League 1)we get even more confused (well, I do at least). These are again after 10 games.

2007/2008

4. Swansea (auto)
5. Forest (auto)
16. Doncaster (p/o)

2006/2007

1. Forest (4th)
3. Bristol City (auto)
15. Scunthorpe (auto)
21. Blackpool (P/O).

So, the last time we really did have a "flyer" (albeit in a different division) we still failed to get promotion.

 

[Francis Benali (on loan)]

Lets analyse the figures.
The following are all after 10 games (approx. 20%), showing the positions of the 3 promoted teams, and the final position of Forest.

2012/13

1. Cardiff (auto)
4. Crystal Palace (Play Off)
10. Hull (auto).
12. Forest (finished 8th).

2011/12

1.Southampton (auto)
4. West Ham (P/O)
15. Reading (auto)
21 Forest (19th)

2010/2011

1. QPR (auto)
3. Norwich (auto)
8. Swansea (P/O)
11. Forest (6th)

2009/2010
1. Newcastle (auto)
2. WBA (auto)
7. Blackpool (P/O)
14 Forest (3rd)

2008/2009

1. Birmingham (auto)
2. Wolves (auto)
9. Burnley (P/O)
24 Forest (19)

So, if history is anything to go by, if we are in the top 10 after 10 games we don't need to all slit our wrists, as both Hull and Reading have both come from these positions (or lower) to gain Automatic promotion, and Swansea, Blackpool and Burnley have come from 8th, 7th and 9th respectively to win via the play-offs.

So, whilst a flying start would of course be good, as long as we make a steady start I don't see a need to unduly panic.

It looks like we were unfortunate in that we had our best season in the year there were two teams way ahead of the rest from gun to tape.

 

[Ravi]

So being top after 10 games is what we should be hoping for.

 

[Hoax]

Does Billy have any other way but "cautious" though Puds? I've very rarely witnessed a Forest side take a team apart under his entire time here. He loves the solid one nils and when it comes off like our cracking unbeaten home run under his tenure last time, we are all happy. It wont win us automatic promotion imo, and as for play-offs our record is awful.

There can be no excuses this time.

Its like when we beat Udders 6 - 1, you didnt think f*** me we destroyed them, you felt that any team with half a brain cell would have turned up and stuck 6 past them

 

[SLM92NF]

It has nothing to do with slow starts or blips at certain times, it boils down to doing enough over the entire season, nothing more than that.

Good starts are highly likely because its going to be rare to have a bad bit so highlighting a small section of a season that teams are rarely going to have bad form in is going to highlight rarities isn't it? but are all these "blips" in form that the top 2 teams have had over the years all happened around the same time? I would assume it varies from club to club. Does the same rule apply to the same amount of games over Xmas? Or tail end of the season?