Otis Redding
Try A Little Tenderness
If you read my post that you quoted again you'll see that I commented on why I think it could happen.
Dr. Evangelos Marinakis and Pie Cannons (sponsored by Carlos)
- Thread starter Carlton Cosmo
- Start date
I just don't buy the wrist slitting about the prices of our players falling through the floor if we go down, there isn't actually a good comparison of what our situation would be. As far as I can tell people's perspective is built upon two things, the fee Leicester got for Maddison (who was entering the final year of his contract, a significant mitigator) and the record fees for sales from Championship clubs.
None of our players are in the situation Maddison was, and one is likely to have just started every game at a World Cup for England. That player isn't suddenly dropping to only going for £60m, especially not with a negotiator like Marinakis in charge, he'd laugh at a fee like that for Anderson no matter what league we're in, and a club like City won't hesitate at £80m+.
The issue of the Championship record sales is daft. Those records are FOR CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYERS, which our players clearly are not, especially Anderson. The elephant in the room on this is that no club like ours has gone down in years, not a club with a significant number of genuinely Premier League players. The situation will be the same if it's West Ham (Bowen, Summerville, Fernandes, Diouf, Wan Bissaka) and ridiculously so if it's Spurs. Teams with players like ours just don't go down, not a team that has been playing in Europe that season with starters for leading nations international teams (which makes our situation even more embarrassing).
There are no comparable examples of a team going down with the kind of leading players we have who are suddenly only worth a fraction of their previous value, even Ipswich and Southampton got market rate fees for their sales last season, including our own Omari Hutchinson. Delap went a bit below purely because he had a release clause.
All that to say I get why people are making the arguments they're making, but I just don't think, in the cold light of day, that those arguments are built on comparisons that are actually comparable at all. We'll get the fees our players are worth regardless of whether we stay up or go down because they're genuinely Premier League players, in some cases with the highest of reputations, not Championship ones or low end PL fillers of relegated teams that were never even really competitive.
None of our players are in the situation Maddison was, and one is likely to have just started every game at a World Cup for England. That player isn't suddenly dropping to only going for £60m, especially not with a negotiator like Marinakis in charge, he'd laugh at a fee like that for Anderson no matter what league we're in, and a club like City won't hesitate at £80m+.
The issue of the Championship record sales is daft. Those records are FOR CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYERS, which our players clearly are not, especially Anderson. The elephant in the room on this is that no club like ours has gone down in years, not a club with a significant number of genuinely Premier League players. The situation will be the same if it's West Ham (Bowen, Summerville, Fernandes, Diouf, Wan Bissaka) and ridiculously so if it's Spurs. Teams with players like ours just don't go down, not a team that has been playing in Europe that season with starters for leading nations international teams (which makes our situation even more embarrassing).
There are no comparable examples of a team going down with the kind of leading players we have who are suddenly only worth a fraction of their previous value, even Ipswich and Southampton got market rate fees for their sales last season, including our own Omari Hutchinson. Delap went a bit below purely because he had a release clause.
All that to say I get why people are making the arguments they're making, but I just don't think, in the cold light of day, that those arguments are built on comparisons that are actually comparable at all. We'll get the fees our players are worth regardless of whether we stay up or go down because they're genuinely Premier League players, in some cases with the highest of reputations, not Championship ones or low end PL fillers of relegated teams that were never even really competitive.
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Listen 'ere young man
Stuart Pearce
Rather throw some money at a free agent striker than yet another manager. There must be someone around.
Do we have any wiggle room in the PL squad? Or some jiggery pokery potential?
Do we have any wiggle room in the PL squad? Or some jiggery pokery potential?
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isaacs
Jack Armstrong
The Big Man was a featured columnist in the Telegraph yesterday in a plea for the Strait of Hormuz to be sorted out by all concerned, offering his tankers and fleets to ship through the Strait if he can get guarantees from the US that they will protect his seafarers.
The shipping topic is way out of my jurisdiction but just thought i'd mention it here. The article is behind a paywall.
The shipping topic is way out of my jurisdiction but just thought i'd mention it here. The article is behind a paywall.
Steve B
Jack Burkitt
Is Edu going to be one of the ‘seafarers’?
Some of the players might want to start raising their games
Carlos
Massive Member
This all sounds very bleak, anyone for a bum? Told you the Pie Cannons were a good idea years ago
We have Villa at home the week before Burnley, and maybe another 2 European games...
Sorry I meant Villa. Still 20 days though.
Forget the European games.
Notcher
Ian Bowyer
This was the argument I came here to make. I understand that usually you have to look to history to see the trend or median but at the same time there is a massive difference with us.
Name me a side which has gone down and had better individual players which they've sold in the same position and haven't been in the final year of their contract than the following:
Sels
Aina
Milenkovic
Murillo
Williams
Sangare
Anderson
Hudson-Odoi
I can't think of any and therefore the ceilings on fees will be smashed if we sell any of those.
HappyHappyJoyJoy
Stuart Pearce
Thats £200m+ if we sell the lot, surely?
Notcher
Ian Bowyer
That's the minimum figure I came to. Even if I reduce the maximum figure that I think we can achieve for each player we could be looking at
Sels £20M
Aina £20M
Milenkovic £20M
Murillo £50M
Williams £25M
Sangare £40M
Anderson £80M
Hudson-Odoi £30M
That's £285M and some of those are definitely conservative estimates.
Very conservative mate.
Williams should be closer to £30m/£35m imo. Absolute rock solid Premier League full back that never gets injured.
Milenkovic the same and i'd price him in the same bracket.
MGW would be £60m also.
If we do go down, there will be a figure we need to get in in transfers and it's up to EM to sell 2-3 big hitters or 1 big hitter and a load of dross.
Williams should be closer to £30m/£35m imo. Absolute rock solid Premier League full back that never gets injured.
Milenkovic the same and i'd price him in the same bracket.
MGW would be £60m also.
If we do go down, there will be a figure we need to get in in transfers and it's up to EM to sell 2-3 big hitters or 1 big hitter and a load of dross.
HappyHappyJoyJoy
Stuart Pearce
Thats a budget that can build a Championship winning team.
I dont buy the notion that we're irretrievably f**ked if we go down, we have assets we can sell.
Even with a discount, those players will be in demand so it won't be a fire sale.
But we won't be odds on to go up, and will only have one or two years before the damage becomes severe.
Market value for players seems to be a combination of :
- supply and demand - a player being worth what someone is prepared to pay - (obvs) - it's why markets get made by selling club leaking "information" about plausible club x interested in player,y prepared to pay z for them . With the hope a benchmark price - or floor - is set and bids come in above that price from other teams
and
- the price algorithmic models spew out . Example , the B clubs, masters of running all the data through their models coming up with a price. So they put in brave bids for low league the Watkins, Toneys and Mbeumos , realise their true value and sell them on. Unfortunately, the stats guys , Ian Graham and the like, have said their models halve the value (to them) of a player following relegation.
Why? Not really sure - suppose it's a bit like finding out your insurance is double your mates in the next town - it's frustrating but based on their previous experiences. Maybe because a great player , part of a team that goes down is deemed to have an attitude or cultural flaw that contributed to team's failure Maybe because their stats just wouldn't be that good in a relegation team - hate to thing what Jesus's PL stats look like this season.
Not every club follows the models like the B clubs but they are more influential .
For Forest explains why conversations about potential price for the star assets has happened already while relegation is a possibility but not a probability.
Notcher
Ian Bowyer
I'd actually forgotten to include MGW. Agree £60M is about the figure I'd envisage for him too.
I agree with the other fees you mentioned too. I've just been super conservative to show what even the minimum could achieve in sales. The reality is it's huge.
I'll caveat that by saying that I've got no idea what that looks against what we still owe against some of the purchase fees although some of those mentioned were very low fees and from several years ago.
Notcher
Ian Bowyer
There's also the fact that playoff spots go down as far as 8th place in the championship next season. Any premier league club going down that's either got an intact squad or one that can achieve high value revenue from sales should almost guarantee themselves a top 8 finish.
Otis Redding
Try A Little Tenderness
I'm surprised you excluded Morgan. His potential fee would bump it up considerably.
Edit: just noticed that you later added him.
HappyHappyJoyJoy
Stuart Pearce
If they have a sensible contingency plan....
Notcher
Ian Bowyer
Ahhh f*ck....I knew there was a hole in my assessment somewhere
HappyHappyJoyJoy
Stuart Pearce
I still think we would be jollies.
Wolves are rudderless, Burnley don't have the quality and there dont look like any sleeping giants rousing from their slumber.
But so many variables are unknown.
You are Divock Origi and I claim my free shipping
Locadoodledoo
Youth Team
Forget about player values, bigger concerns for me in the event of relegation is will Edu still be here, who's running recruitment and who's going to be our first manager of the new season? If EM get those 3 wrong again we'll be onto a hiding to nothing
JonnoSnr
Jack Armstrong
Edu has gone hasn't he?